November 17, 2021
The fog has finally lifted off the deck as all of the usual reporting stations are reporting visibilities between 3 and 6 miles. Satellite imagery shows plenty of low clouds between the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. However, the weak trough of low pressure that passed through yesterday weakened the inversion enough for the tops of the overcast to rise up to 3,000 feet. For this reason, typically the low cloud deck will begin to mix itself out. If it does, it will form once again later tonight as ground fog and the process will begin anew.
Another system will move into northern California late Friday and Saturday. This system has a better chance of lifting the low clouds out of the valley temporarily. Models, however, for the period beginning Sunday are indicating a strong ridge will be over the western 1/3 of the US.
The only real wild card is the possibility of a cut off low developing off the central coast over the weekend and possibly being picked up by the westerly flow aloft moving it inland Tuesday and Wednesday. This feature looks to be weak and moisture starved so for now we’ll maintain a dry forecast for this period with temperatures close to average. If the fog takes over again, very little difference will be observed between daytime highs and overnight lows.
Unfortunately, models at this time are showing dry conditions through the end of the month.. so far this season, rainfall is above average only because of that very strong storm system back in late October.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today with patchy morning fog this morning. Partly cloudy tonight through Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night and Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Wednesday with areas of patchy night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term: Highs temperatures each afternoon through Friday will range in the upper 50s and lower 60s where the fog is locked in and the mid 60s to the lower 70s where the sun breaks through. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s in areas with clear skies to the upper 40s and lower 50s where the low overcast remains.
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM fog/mostly cloudy 44/68 |
Sunday
AM fog/mostly clear 42/65 |
Monday
AM fog/mostly clear 40/65
|
Tuesday
AM fog/Partly cloudy 40/66 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 40/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 24 through November 30 This model continues to indicate a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the western part of the country and off shore, driving the storm track well to the north of central California. Temperatures above the valley floor will remain above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by fog and low clouds.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Saturday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: No chance of rain for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: Obviously, the frost season is getting off to a slow start this year. Currently, I see nothing suggesting a cold pattern on the horizon.
Actual Humidity R:ange Yesterday: Delano, 100%/100% Porterville, 100%/82%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 50%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .32, Parlier .20, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .24, Porterville 39, Delano .30. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 60, Arvin, .NA, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 60, Delano 55. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/41. Record Temperatures: 81/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 218 -17. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.58. Monthly .30. -.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +43. Month to date .01 -.23
Average Temperature this month: 58.3, +2.4. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 8 , Arvin, 0, Belridge, 0 ,Shafter, 0 , Stratford, 14 , Delano, 3 , Porterville, 0
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 6:40/4:48/10:08
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 53 / 0.00 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 55 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 59 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 325 T 0 1.33 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 300 T 0 1.02 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 173 0.48 42 1.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 76 0.06 7 0.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 159 0.11 11 0.99 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 161 0.09 12 0.77 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 183 0.39 75 0.52 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 156 T 0 0.50 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 189 0.30 26 1.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.58 165 0.26 27 0.96 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 131 0.24 22 1.07 13.32
Next report: November 18