November 19, 2021
The fog this morning on the valley floor is rather chaotic and generally north of Kern County. A weak weather system is currently moving into northern California. Light showers have occurred as far south as Merced County, however the general flow in the upper atmosphere is out of the west so no measurable precipitation can be expected in the central or south valley. Forecast models show this system moving into northern Nevada by this evening, so expect variable amounts of cloud cover from time to time, but little else.
A rather oddball pattern will begin to evolve Sunday and Monday. Upper level high pressure will build into the Pacific Northwest and northern California while a semi-cut off low forms off the southern California coast. This low will be picked up by a trough of low pressure heading into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday. No precipitation is anticipated, but these systems are tricky so it’s possible sprinkles could occur Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure will follow on Thursday as the storm track moves northward into the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon will see the trend of the rainfall season so far continuing, picking up large amounts of precipitation while central and southern California remain under a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure off the California coast.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Otherwise. expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies Saturday afternoon through Monday night. Increasing clouds Tuesday leading to a chance of light showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and clouds.
Short Term: Highs this afternoon through Sunday afternoons will range in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows tonight and again Saturday night will be in the low to mid 40s.
Seven Day Forecast:
| ondau
Mostly clear 40/65 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 44/68 |
Wednesday
Small chance of showers 40/67
|
Thursday
AM fog/mostly clear 38/62 |
Friday
AM fog/mostly clear 37/63 |
Two Week Outlook: November 26 through December 2: This model continues to indicate a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the western part of the country and off shore, driving the storm track well to the north of central California. Temperatures above the valley floor will remain above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by fog and low clouds.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Monday will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A weak weather system will move through central California Tuesday and Wednesday. A sprinkle or widely scattered light showers cannot be ruled out, however the chance of anything measurable remains low.
Frost: A weather system will move through the valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. The air mass trailing this system is colder, so overnight lows Thursday through Friday of next week will fall into the 30s with a chance of lower 30s in those traditional cold spots. No serious frost or freeze through is seen.
Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/51% Porterville, 100%/56%. Dew points: Upper Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 70%/. Tomorrow, 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .32, Parlier .24, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .26, Porterville 39, Delano .28. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 62, Parlier 60, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 60, Delano 54. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 83/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 239 -21. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.52. Monthly .30. -.19
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +39. Month to date .01 -.27
Average Temperature this month: 57.8, +2.4. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5 , Parlier, 20 , Arvin, 10, Belridge, 18 ,Shafter, 10 , Stratford, 34 , Delano, 19 , Porterville, 21
Sunrise/Sunset:HOD: 6:42/4:46/10:05
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 52 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 66 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 302 0.09 6 1.43 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 281 0.10 9 1.09 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.99 163 1.08 89 1.22 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 70 0.16 17 0.93 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 150 0.28 27 1.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 153 0.13 16 0.81 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 170 0.39 70 0.56 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 150 T 0 0.52 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 2.19 177 0.37 30 1.24 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 122 0.25 22 1.15 13.32
Next report: November 20