There are two low pressure systems out there, neither of which is having much of an effect on California this afternoon. The first is moving through Baja. The second is diving southward through the Great Basin. The third player in all of this is upper level high pressure located just off shore and will be pushing inland into the western one-third of the US in the coming days. Satellite imagery depicts a solid area of upslope clouds covering the southern one-half of the San Joaquin Valley. Drier air is trying to move down the west side of the valley where some clearing is occurring as far south as Fresno County. The LAMP suite of models is indicating the cloud deck will remain solid in the south valley tonight but may begin to clear north of a Hanford/Visalia line. With that in mind, I’m leaning towards most locations remaining above freezing tonight.
The high will dominate our pattern through Monday night. A low pressure system will then stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest with light showers as far south as a Bay Area/Stockton line. After Tuesday, upper level high pressure will again take over, offering up a dry forecast. In fact, it now appears we will remain dry for the next week to possibly ten days.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with areas of dense fog developing. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday night with areas of fog and low clouds during the nights and mornings. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night with patchy low clouds and fog during the morning hours. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday with extensive fog and low clouds nights and mornings.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/47/30/51 | Reedley 34/48/31/52 | Dinuba 34/49/31/52 |
| Porterville 35/49/31/53 | Lindsay 33/47/30/52 | Delano 37/48/32/52 |
| Bakersfield 37/50/33/52 | Taft 40/48/35/52 | Arvin 38/47/33/53 |
| Lamont 36/48/34/51 | Pixley 33/48/31/53 | Tulare 33/48/30//52 |
| Woodlake 35/47/30/53 | Hanford 35/47/31/52 | Orosi 34/48/30/53 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest this evening at 5 to 12 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds later tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: Short term models are indicating the upslope clouds which are banked up against the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada will remain for the rest of afternoon and night in Kern County and much of Tulare County. At least partial clearing will take place along the west side northward through Merced County. These areas will have a chance of dipping into the lower 30s. most locations in Tulare and Kern Counties will remain above freezing due to cloud cover while Fresno County will have variable temperatures due to in and out cloud cover. There will be a greater risk of upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday morning as a north/northwest flow attempts to mix down drier air to the valley floor. Theoretically mixing out the upslope cloud cover. Experience has taught me to not bank on it.
For tonight, we’ll forecast colder locations in the lower 30s just in case skies open up, especially north of Kern County. By Tuesday morning, higher clouds will be increasing ahead of a system which will affect northern California. Later next week, a westerly flow will maintain warmer air aloft which should set the stage for extensive fog and low clouds lasting through the afternoon hours. This pattern is conducive for above freezing temperatures.
Finally, I’d like to wish you a Happy New Year. So far, the first two months of the frost season have been a piece of cake. Let’s hope 2022 continues to follow suit.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
Mcfarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 1