July 20, 2022
There are plenty of mid and high level clouds over southern California left over from monsoon related thunderstorms over Arizona yesterday. Satellite imagery shows these clouds moving westward towards the ocean rather than northwestward over central California. Even so, some of this moisture will begin to move overhead later today, possibly triggering thunderstorms over the southern Sierra Nevada this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Strong upper level high pressure sits centered over the Four Corners region, however another high over the northeastern part of the country may build far enough to the west to nudge the Four Corners system further towards the southwest. This would keep the monsoon just to our south. As you might guess, this is a low confidence forecast so I believe “partly cloudy and hot” is the correct phrasing for the next few days. The combination of cloud cover and a slight weakening of the high should bring temperatures down into the lower 100s Friday through Monday, which will feel almost like a breath of spring after the excessively hot temperatures of the recent past. The marine layer remains rather shallow, right at 1,000 feet so no help there. Any cooling will have to be synoptic. Models going through Wednesday of next week show temperatures leveling off near the century mark, which is close to average this time of year with more heat later next week as a new high builds over northern California.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Friday and continued hot. Mostly clear Friday night through next Wednesday with occasional clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 105/66/104/64/102 | Reedley 105/65/105/64/103 | Dinuba 104/63/103/63/102 |
| Porterville 106/67/105/66/104 | Lindsay 105/65/104/64/103 | Delano 106/66/105/64/104 |
| Bakersfield 105/78/104/75/103 | Taft 104/80//103/77/102 | Arvin 107/73/105/72/103 |
| Lamont 106/70//106/68/103 | Pixley 105/68/104/65/102 | Tulare 103/64/103/63/102 |
| Woodlake 105/67/103/64/102 | Hanford 106/65/105/64/103 | Orosi 103/64/103/63/102 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly clear 68/100 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 70/101 |
Monday
Mostly clear 70/102 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 69/99 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 71/100 |
Two Week Outlook: July 25 through July 31 This model continues to show well above average temperatures during this period. It also shows a better than even chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern California deserts and possibly up the Sierra Nevada. The usual dry conditions will continue over the valley floor.
June: This model shows a high center over New Mexico and Texas extending into California for marginally above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model is hinting at a possible active monsoon season this year once we get into July and August. It’s possible we could see more than the usual amount of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada but the valley will be typically dry with above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: During the afternoon and evening hours, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. During the late evening through the morning hours, winds will be variable to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 57%/17% Porterville, 65%/18%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.26, Parlier 2.02, Arvin 2.29, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 2.04, Delano 1.99. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 76, Parlier 81, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano 87. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 98/70. Record Temperatures: 111/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 981 +142. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.99 or -3.47. Monthly .00 -.25
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.55. Monthly, -.15
Average Temperature this month: 82.5 +1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129, Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 5:56, Sunset, 8:14, hours of daylight, 14:19
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 104 / 67 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 104 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 106 / 77 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 106 / 73 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 106 / 69 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 104 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 104 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 104 / 69 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.88 59 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.99 74 7.12 58 12.20 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.56 14 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.29 58 6.59 60 10.93 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.34 78 4.29 53 8.08 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.31 6.36
BISHOP T 4.75 104 1.62 36 4.56 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 59 5.79 46 12.49 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.03 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.87 52 13.22 13.32
Next report: July 21
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.