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Forecast

April 12, 2022/report

Trudy Hibler

August 12, 2022

Upper level high pressure is centered over Kansas and Colorado this morning while the low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest has moved northward to off the coast of British Columbia. The flow aloft is still barely southwesterly above central California but has turned southerly over southern California, allowing the monsoon to begin to creep into the lower desert regions. Temperatures today will be fairly close to average but will begin to slowly creep upwards over the weekend as the high over Colorado expands westward. By Monday and Tuesday, the high will be almost directly overhead, effectively driving temperatures above the century mark with most locations by midweek in the 103 to 106 range. The clockwise flow around the high will turn the winds aloft out of the southeast, moving moisture from the monsoon up the Sierra Nevada. Variable cloudiness will spread over the valley. It’s possible that anytime from late Monday night through Thursday, moisture from the monsoon may be deep enough for sprinkles or even a light shower or thunderstorm, mainly near the foothills of the Tehachapi Mountains or the southern Sierra Nevada. Measurable rain is unlikely at any given location, but cannot be ruled out. Models going all the way out to the 25th are still showing a very active monsoon with moisture moving into California from time to time.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Variable cloudiness at times Monday night through Friday and hot.  Sprinkles or isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Monday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 98/62/99/64/101 Reedley 99/63/100/65/101 Dinuba 98/63/99/65/100
Porterville 98/64/100/65/101 Lindsay 98/62/99/65/101 Delano 99/66/100/67/102
Bakersfield 98/72/99/73/101 Taft 97/73/99/74/101 Arvin 99/67/101/69/102
Lamont 99/69/101/68/101 Pixley 98/65/99/66/100 Tulare 97/62/99/64/99
Woodlake 98/62/99/65/100 Hanford 99/64/100/65/101 Orosi 98/62/99/64/100

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

Partly cloudy

68/101

 Tuesday

Variable clouds

71/103

 Wednesday

Variable clouds

72/105

 Thursday

Variable clouds

71/104

 Friday

Partly cloudy

72/103

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 18 through August 25   This model shows a continuation of an active monsoon season over the Desert Southwest and occasionally California with daily chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and partly cloudy skies over the valley. Above average temperatures will continue.

 

August:  This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.

 

August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 mph through Monday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light to near calm.

 

Rain: A considerable amount of cloudiness will begin rotating in from the southeast Monday night through Thursday of next week. this will be the latest round from the monsoon and it will spread scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts of southern California and northward up the Sierra Nevada. Depending upon how much deep tropical moisture moves in, it could result in a chance of light showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor. The chance of measurable precipitation will remain very low, however trace amounts to possibly isolated pockets of a few hundredths cannot be ruled out. Even the longer range models are showing the monsoon remaining far enough to the west to affect central California from time to time all the way out through the 25th.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 70%/28%  Porterville, 88%/29%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 90%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.01, Parlier 1.70, Arvin 2.06, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.74. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 78, Parlier 82, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 92, Delano NA. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 97/65. Record Temperatures: 110/55

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  1455 +241. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  6.34 or -4.60.  Monthly  ..05 +.05

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 5.01 or  -.55.  Monthly,  -.00 +.00

Average Temperature this month: 84.9 +4.0 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129,  Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157.  courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 6:15, Sunset, 7:52, hours of daylight, 13:40

Yesterday’s Weather:

  • MCE : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  97 /  61 / 0.00 /
  • MAE : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  97 /  59 / 0.00 /
  • FAT : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  99 /  69 / 0.00 /
  • HJO : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  99 /  66 / 0.00 /
  • NLC : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 100 /  66 / 0.00 /
  • BFL : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  97 /  70 / 0.00 /
  • VIS : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  96 /  80 / 0.00 /
  • ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 /  90 /  69 / 0.00 /
  • PTV : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  97 /  65 / 0.00 /
  • TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 /  96 /  74 / 0.00 /
  • LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 /  95 /   M / 0.00 /
  • Rainfall: 24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave         ave  365
  • STOCKTON 00    9.81    73    7.88    59    13.36    13.45
  • MODESTO 00    9.00    74    7.12    58    12.20    12.27
  • MERCED 00    7.44    63    7.00    60    11.75    11.80
  • MADERA                     00       M     M       M     M    10.76    10.79
  • FRESNO 00    6.34    58    6.59    60    10.94    10.99
  • HANFORD 00    6.36    79    4.29    53     8.09     8.13
  • BAKERSFIELD         00    5.41    86    2.77    44     6.31     6.36
  • BISHOP 00    5.63   120    1.68    36     4.68     4.84
  • SALINAS 00    7.31    58    5.79    46    12.51    12.58
  • PASO ROBLES 00    8.70    72    6.74    56    12.08    12.15
  • SANTA MARIA 00    7.79    59    6.87    52    13.24    13.32

Next report: August 13

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.