September 10, 2022
The center of Kay’s circulation is located roughly 200 miles to the west/southwest of San Diego. The rich tropical moisture currently unwinding from this rapidly dissipating storm is now as far north as the south valley. So far, just sprinkles have been recorded. The northern limit of light showers showing up on Doppler is Fresno County. However, a lot of this precipitation may be evaporating before it reaches the ground. That will change, however, as dew points continue to rise in the valley. Dew points during the warmest part of the day yesterday were in the low to mid 50s. Today they will rise into the mid to upper 60s, possibly even near 70. This will create uncomfortable conditions as a very humid air mass takes over. Models still insist as much as a tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible from this event from now til Monday in Kern and Tulare Counties. I’m a bit skeptical of those numbers as we are in a reverse rain shadow from the Sierra Nevada. The latest balloon sounding out of San Diego indicated east/southeast winds at around 37 mph between about 5,000 and 18,000 feet. I don’t believe they’re that strong above central California, however I do feel they’re strong enough to create that rain shadow. Amounts of around a tenth of an inch seems more plausible at this time. The real test will begin this afternoon as the daytime heating effect destabilizes the atmosphere even more, forming more showers and isolated thunderstorms over mainly the mountain areas. However, the heavy cloud canopy may reduce that activity. The latest surge of moisture to move out of Kay is now moving into southern California. How much of this moisture makes it this far north is quite speculative. The Kern County mountains and desert should do pretty well. Beyond that point, though, it’s shaky at best. Models show a moist, unstable air mass through Monday so we’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast through Monday. as a trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday, it will allow a westerly flow aloft to begin, finally shoving the tropical activity into the Great Basin. After Monday, this upcoming week will be the first time we enjoy a tinge of autumn in the air as highs drop into the mid to upper 80s as early as Thursday. Medium range models are inconclusive but none suggests a return to the unbelievable heat wave we’ve endured. I still look at some of those numbers and shake my head.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered light showers this morning. The chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase later this afternoon and continue through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Clearing Monday night. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday through Saturday with quite comfortable temperatures.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/72/93/68/93 | Reedley 92/74/93/67/94 | Dinuba 91/71/93/68/93 |
| Porterville 90/74/91/72/92 | Lindsay 90/74/91/73/92 | Delano 89/77/91/73/92 |
| Bakersfield 89/76/91/74/91 | Taft 89/77/91/76/92 | Arvin 89/75/93/72/93 |
| Lamont 89/75/93/71/94 | Pixley 92/71/93/68/94 | Tulare 91/71/93/67/92 |
| Woodlake 92/71/93/68/93 | Hanford 92/74/93/68/94 | Orosi 91/71/92/67/93 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 62/94 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 55/88 |
Two Week Outlook: September 16 through September 22: this model indicates a refreshing trough of low pressure will be along the west coast, allowing marine air in from time to time. The result will be somewhat below average temperatures and dry conditions.
August: This model is quite generic, indicating the same trend of high pressure resulting in generally above average temperatures for the month of August. Precipitation will be near average, which means very little to none. This model continues to show an active monsoon over the west which may visit California from time to time.
August, September, October: Upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the next few months, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. This year’s monsoon, which has been an active one so far, will result in a continuation of above average precipitation over the Desert Southwest and possibly the Sierra Nevada.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable through 15 mph. Local gusts to 20 to 25 mph are possible near showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be generally light and variable.
Rain: I’ve received reports of sprinkles as far north as Hanford this morning. There’s a distinct cut off line between the cloud cover. Skies are mostly clear from Merced north but are overcast further south. The true test of this system will begin this afternoon once the daytime heating effect gets revved up. If it stays overcast, it will be more difficult for new activity to develop. We are also what I would describe as a reverse rain shadow as storms form over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains, they will move from east to west across the valley floor. As soon as this activity loses its lift over the mountains, it will weaken rapidly. How much of this activity actually makes it out over the valley floor is very speculative. The latest precipitation estimates from models still indicates between a tenth and a quarter of an inch over Kern and Tulare Counties with Fresno County being the dividing line between wet and dry weather. The chance for measurable rain will continue through Monday. by Monday night, a westerly flow in the atmosphere will begin again, moving the remnants of Kay into the Great Basin, thus ending this event. Expect dry weather to begin Tuesday and last indefinitely.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 63%/19% Porterville, 73%/19%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid 60s to the lower 70s. Kern: Mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 0%/. Tomorrow, 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.90, Parlier 1.64, Arvin 1.90, Orange Cove .*, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 77, Parlier 81, Arvin, 83, Orange Cove 83, Porterville *, Delano *. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 93/62. Record Temperatures: 108/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2058 +445. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.34 or -4.61. Monthly ..05 +.04
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 5.01 or -.91. Monthly, -..01 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 88.4 +10.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:38, Sunset, 7:12, hours of daylight, 12:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 106 / 70 / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 106 / 68 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 106 / 77 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 108 / 71 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 70 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600/ 104 / 81 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 105 / 71 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 105 / 73 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 104 / 83 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 104 / M / M /
- Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 9.81 73 7.89 59 13.38 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 9.00 74 7.12 58 12.22 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.44 63 7.00 60 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.34 58 6.59 60 10.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.36 79 4.29 53 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.41 86 2.77 44 6.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 5.65 119 1.69 36 4.75 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 7.31 58 5.79 46 12.53 12.58
PASO ROBLES T 8.70 72 6.74 56 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 7.79 59 6.88 52 13.27 13.32
Next report: Friday, September 10 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.