October 5, 2022
Short term, late summer type weather will prevail as upper level high pressure oriented northeast to southwest over California prevails. Models are still projecting the development of a cut off low over northern Baja Thursday, remaining in that position through the weekend. This will turn the winds aloft east to west. It’s possible a limited amount of moisture from the monsoon will work around the low for a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the high Sierra Sunday and Monday. it won’t affect the valley, however. Where the weather gets more complex is during the middle part of next week, although there are considerable differences in model information. It appears a rather robust low pressure system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and slide into the Great Basin just east of the Sierra Nevada Wednesday for a significant cooling trend. The complexity lies in the low potentially becoming cut off from the flow aloft, backing off over northern and central California next Thursday and Friday. This would certainly increase the chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and will have to be watched closely due to a minimal chance of showers over the valley floor next Thursday and Friday. At the very least, below average temperatures will prevail for a change. These low pressure systems cutting off during the autumn season can be tricky, but at least it’s giving me something to talk about instead of the usual dry pattern which has gone on for months.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 92/56/94/57/94 | Reedley 93/57/95/57/95 | Dinuba 91/54/93/56/94 |
| Porterville 92/56/94/58/93 | Lindsay 92/55/94/57/94 | Delano 93/56/95/57/95 |
| Bakersfield 92/67/92/68/93 | Taft 90/70/93/71/92 | Arvin 93/62/96/63/95 |
| Lamont 93/61/95/62/95 | Pixley 92/57/94/60/93 | Tulare 91/55/93/56/93 |
| Woodlake 92/54/95/55/95 | Hanford 92/57/95/58/95 | Orosi 91/54/93/56/93 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly clear 57/94 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 58/95 |
Monday
Mostly clear 56/92 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 52/85 |
Two Week Outlook: October 11 through October 17: This model continues to depict a dry pattern for central California. Late season monsoon moisture will continue to move into Arizona and New Mexico. It appears this moisture will be too far to the southeast to affect central California. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
October: This model is really a flip of the coin as far as precipitation is concerned and shows no real bias for above or below average rainfall. It does indicate somewhat above average temperatures will continue.
October, November, December: This model definitely has a bias for above average temperatures for the next 90 days. It also points to above average rainfall for northern California with below average precipitation for southern California. With that in mind, that gives California near average precipitation.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late morning through the early morning hours will be variable to no more than 12 mph. winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night of next week. so far, I’m going to keep the forecast dry past Wednesday, however, models show a low diving into the Great Basin Wednesday then possibly retrograding…or backing up…over northern and central California next Thursday and Friday. Theoretically, this would result in a decent chance of showers for the Sierra Nevada. Currently, I’ll stick with a dry forecast for the valley, however these systems can throw a curve ball this time of year. For now, we’ll just study it and see what trends develop in the coming days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA, Porterville, 91%/34%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.35, Parlier 1.18, Arvin 1.36, Porterville 1.15, Delano 1.15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 73, Parlier 75, Arvin, 76, Porterville 81, Delano 80. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 84/55. Record Temperatures: 101/49
Heating Degree Days This Season. 0 -8. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.03 Monthly .,00 -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.01. Monthly, -.00 -.01
Average Temperature this month: 73.6 +4.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:58, Sunset, 6:35, hours of daylight, 11:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
- MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / M / 0.00 /
- MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
- FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 91 / 62 / 0.00 /
- HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
- NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 91 / 55 / 0.00 /
- BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 63 / 0.00 /
- VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 57 / 0.00 /
- ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1049 / M / 60 / 0.00 /
- PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 91 / 60 / 0.00 /
- TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 87 / 69 / 0.00 /
- LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 89 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.03 13.32
Next report: Thursday, October 6
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.