October 28, 2022
In the short term, a ridge of upper level high pressure will dominate our pattern through the weekend. A weak upper air disturbance off shore will throw some mid and high level clouds overhead tonight and Saturday with no active weather for us. Temperatures will warm to very comfortable levels as widespread mid to upper 70s will prevail through Halloween. We’ll see a transition period late Monday through Tuesday as the high breaks down, allowing a developing trough of low pressure to dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska. It will be positioned just off shore by Tuesday then will make its move inland Wednesday through Thursday. Initially, the snow level in the surrounding mountains will be at around 7,500 feet, lowering to near 4,000 feet Thursday. Latest models show the center of circulation over northern California late Wednesday and Wednesday night, minimizing the chance of thunderstorm activity. Some models are now leaning towards a less wet scenario than previously depicted. Upper level high pressure will begin to fill in from the west Friday as the low moves into the Desert Southwest. Unlike previous model runs, it does not appear that a second system will follow. Models now show a ridge of high pressure building in from the west next weekend, returning us to a dry pattern for at least several days.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Partly cloudy tonight through Saturday morning. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday. increasing cloudiness late Monday night and Tuesday. Showers will become likely Wednesday through Thursday. A chance of showers Thursday evening. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/39/76/39/75 | Reedley 78/40/77/41/76 | Dinuba 76/38/75/40/75 |
| Porterville 77/38/75/39/75 | Lindsay 76/37/75/37/75 | Delano 78/40/76/41/76 |
| Bakersfield 77/48/75/48/74 | Taft 77/50/73/51/73 | Arvin 79/44/72/43/73 |
| Lamont 77/43/75/43/76 | Pixley 78/40/75/40/75 | Tulare 75/38/75/37/74 |
| Woodlake 77/39/75/39/75 | Hanford 77/40/76/41/76 | Orosi 76/38/75/39/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 41/75 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 50/78 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 43/70 |
Thursday
Showers likely 38/59 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 39/60 |
Two Week Outlook: November 4 through November 10 This model certainly shows a greater potential for rain during this period. Along with the chance of rain will come a colder air mass, resulting in below average temperatures.
November: Both the 30 and 90 day projections indicate a swath of below average rainfall from southern California eastward to Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Much of northern California is projected to have near average rainfall. Temperatures will remain marginally above average.
November, December, January: The 90 day model also projects lower than average precipitation from southern California through Texas with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Northern and north/central California are projected to have near average precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
Wind Discussion: Winds later today will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Locally stronger gusts are possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds later this evening through Monday will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. There is a chance of showers Tuesday night with showers becoming likely Wednesday through Thursday. A low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will give periods of mainly light showers Wednesday into Thursday evening. From Fresno County north, rainfall amounts appear to be between .25 and .33, In Kings and Tulare Counties, amounts of .10 to .25 are likely with heavier amounts near the foothills. Kern County can expect .10 or less over the valley portion. For at least part of this event, the jet stream will be swinging in from the west, forming a rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County. Dry weather will return Friday, lasting for several days thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 80%/20%, Porterville, 95%/21%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: 100%, tomorrow 100%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .98, Parlier, .78, Arvin 1.03, Porterville, .82, Delano .80.
Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature
Stratford.69, Parlier 68, Arvin, 72, Porterville 72, Delano 71. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 74/48. Record Temperatures: 89/35
Heating Degree Days This Season. 27 -31. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.42, Monthly .,00 -.39
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.20. Monthly, -.00 -.18
Average Temperature this month: 70.2 +4.7, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:19, Sunset, 6:06, hours of daylight, 10:49
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA%, Porterville, 93%/31%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.. Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: 100%, tomorrow 70%.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .95, Parlier, .77, Arvin .98, Porterville, .80, Delano .76.
Tomorrow, 90. Seven day soil temperature
Stratford 68, Parlier 68, Arvin, 71, Porterville 70, Delano 70. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 73/48. Record Temperatures: 89/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 36 -27. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00 -.44, Monthly .,00 -.39
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00 or -.21. Monthly, -.00 -.18
Average Temperature this month: 69.6 +4.3, Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, , Parlier, , Arvin, , Belridge, , Shafter, Stratford, , Delano, , Porterville,. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:20, Sunset, 6:05, hours of daylight, 10:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 73 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 74 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 76 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 3.86 702 0.55 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 2.80 636 0.44 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 1.73 339 0.51 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.57 168 0.34 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 1.27 289 0.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 1.10 289 0.38 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.94 448 0.21 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.65 210 0.31 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 0.11 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.01 2 1.62 338 0.48 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 1.57 349 0.45 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 1.29 307 0.42 13.32
Next report: Friday, October 29
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.