November 12, 2022
Currently, a ribbon of fog extends from near Visalia northward to Merced County. Most of the pea soup this morning is just to the west of Highway 99. Another batch of fog is situated near Avenal. The fog will burn off into hazy afternoon sunshine at most areas.
In the big picture, a weak and largely dry low pressure system is centered over northeast California this morning and will dive into the Great Basin this afternoon. A second low will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Monday. this system poses no threat of precipitation, however it will briefly turn the winds aloft off shore, injecting another shot of cold air into the valley and keeping temperatures well below average. The pattern of frosty nights and cool days is essentially what the bottom line will be through this coming Saturday.
Upper level high pressure will build into the Gulf of Alaska, ensuring this upcoming week will be precipitation free.
Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog up and down the center of the valley during the night and early morning hours. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Tuesday night. Areas of night and morning fog up the center of the valley north of Kern County. Otherwise it will be mostly clear and hazy through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/32/58/31/61 | Reedley 62/33/58/32/60 | Dinuba 61/32/58/31/60 |
| Porterville 61/32/58/32/60 | Lindsay 61/31/58/30/60 | Delano 63/34/58/32/61 |
| Bakersfield 63/42/54/38/62 | Taft 61/43/56/39/62 | Arvin 62/32/58/31/61 |
| Lamont 63/37/58/34/61 | Pixley 62/33/57/32/62 | Tulare 61/31/57/30/60 |
| Woodlake 61/33/58/32/61 | Hanford 63/34/58/32/60 | Orosi 61/32/58/32/60 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Am fog/pm sun 33/62 |
Wednesday
Am fog/pm sun 33/61 |
Thursday
Am fog/pm sun 32/63 |
Friday
Am fog/pm sun 33/65 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 33/63 |
Two Week Outlook: November 19 through November 25: This model shows only a minimal chance of showers during this period, but doesn’t rule out a chance of inclement weather. Temperatures will be near seasonal.
November: As far as temperatures are concerned for November, this model shows a 50/50 chance of above or below average temperatures. Playing it safe. The good news is above average precipitation is anticipated.
November, December, January: If this model comes to fruition, temperatures will range marginally above average. This model draws a line of wet and dry weather for California with above average rainfall for the northern part of the state and dryer than average rainfall over the southern half of the state. The line goes right through Fresno County.
Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 5mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds later tonight through Tuesday will generally be at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: The coldest temperatures as of 5:00am were 30 at Cutler, Fowler, and Arvin with Exeter at 31. Most other locations chilled down to 32 to 36. Really, for tonight I see no reason to deviate from last night’s forecast for the coming days as we have a relatively cold air mass now locked onto the valley floor. Systems will periodically move into the Great Basin, injecting another shot of cold air onto the valley floor. Thus, areas of frost will be with us through at least Saturday of this week.
Coldest locations tonight will again dip into the upper 20s for short durations with most other locations in the low to mid 30s. For Monday morning, it’s possible some readings could be a degree or two colder due to another shot of cold air leaking in from the Great Basin. By and lalrge, however, most locations will remain in the low to mid 30s.
Medium range models show more of a westerly flow developing in the upper atmosphere, but not until Sunday and Monday of next week, raising temperatures to near seasonal levels.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
34 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/54% Porterville, 99%/59%
Midafternoon Dew Points: Low to mid to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%
ET for the past seven days: Stratford 45 Parlier 38 Arvin 54 Porterville 45 Delano 45
Sky cover: Visalia 60% today 80% Bakersfield 80% today 80%,
Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 57, Arvin 62, Porterville 60, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 84/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 194 +26 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .66, 80% of average, Monthly .80
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .66, 153% of average, Monthly: .41
Average Temperature This Month: 51.9 -5.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 34, Parlier 56, Arvin 26 , Belridge 45, Shafter 33, Stratford 67, Delano 41, Porterville 49 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:34, Sunset, 4:52, hours of daylight, 10:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 55 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 1.24 115 4.32 400 1.08 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 1.19 143 3.06 369 0.83 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.99 102 1.99 205 0.97 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.50 74 0.65 96 0.68 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.66 80 1.57 189 0.83 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.59 91 1.24 191 0.65 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.66 153 0.95 221 0.43 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.46 105 0.78 177 0.44 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 13 M M 0.15 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.72 77 2.19 235 0.93 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.99 115 1.40 163 0.86 13.32
Next report: November 12 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.