December 3, 2022 report

December 3, 2022

For the past several hours, an impressive field of moisture has been moving from southwest to northeast across most of the southern and central San Joaquin Valley. This moisture is flanked underneath a large low pressure system off the Oregon/northern California coast and will continue to feed precipitation into central California through Sunday morning. That’s when models show things drying out a little bit Sunday afternoon and night. Most of the models for the next few days show a semi active pattern going into next week. however, what’s lacking is the subtropical tap which has been so generous the past few days. Most models show the storm track migrating further north Monday through Wednesday as weak disturbances continue to feed into northern California. Models have been back and forth the past few days on another potentially stronger system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Friday and Saturday. For now, we’ll go with 50/50 on more rain next week.

Forecast: rain this morning, possibly locally heavy at times. Periods of rain this afternoon through Sunday morning with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers Sunday afternoon. A slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Friday with a chance of showers Friday afternoon through Saturday.

Short Term:

Madera 61/51/63/43/59	Reedley 63/52/63/42/58	Dinuba 61/50/63/41/58
Porterville 60/49/63/41/58	Lindsay 63/50/63/43/58	Delano 64/53/61/44/57
Bakersfield 64/54/62/49/57	Taft 64/55/61//48/58	Arvin 65/52/63/44/59
Lamont 65/53/63/45/59	Pixley 63/51/63/41/59	Tulare 61/49/63/45/58
Woodlake 63/49/63/44/58	Hanford 62/50/63/46/59	Orosi 61/49/63/45/59

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday

AM fog/partly cloudy

37/59

Wednesday

AM fog/partly cloudy

35/57

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

32/57

Friday

AM fog/PM sun

34/56

Saturday

Chance of showers

37/55

Two Week Outlook: December 19 through December 16: This time around, this model is still showing the storm door being open during this period for a reasonably good chance of precipitation. These storms come from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will be chilly.

December: This model shows above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest through the southern half of California, including the valley. Precipitation is forecast to be above average in the Pacific Northwest and northern California and near average in central California.

December, January, February: This model predicts above average temperatures for most of California eastward all the way through the southeastward US with below average precipitation for much of California and the Desert Southwest while above average rainfall will occur over the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Great Lakes. This would be a pretty typical La Nina winter pattern.

Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 mph at times through tonight with stronger gusts possible. Winds Sunday will be mostly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts, diminishing Sunday night. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be variable to near 10 mph during late morning through afternoon hours. Winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to no more than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

Rain: An impressive plume of precipitation is moving onshore from roughly Vandenberg on the south to San Simeon on the north with widespread precipitation moving inland over the valley. This rain has been moving through the valley for the past several hours and will continue to do so until the backside of the band of subtropical moisture moves on shore. Precipitation this afternoon will be more sporadic as the current channel of moisture moves off to the east. Periods of showers will continue this afternoon into Sunday morning then will finally begin to dry up Sunday night with largely dry weather Monday through Thursday, although weaker disturbances will continue to move in to the north. Heaviest rainfall will be this morning and with additional rainfall, as much as .25 to .50 may be measured by noon today. It appears now we may have another low move out of the Gulf of Alaska affecting at least northern California Friday and Saturday and possibly central California. Models have been having a difficult time nailing this one down. It may be a day or two before this one comes into focus.

Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight through Tuesday morning. We have a shot of at least local frost Wednesday through Friday as the air mass behind the current storm is relatively cold, but nothing new for December. The best chance for lower 30s will be Thursday and Friday. However, with a soaking wet valley floor, no doubt fog and low clouds will enter the picture. For now there’s nothing on the horizon that appears to be noteworthy.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/76% Porterville, 100%/72%

Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today 10% tomorrow 20%

ET for the past seven days: Stratford,.44 Parlier, .36 Arvin .48 Porterville .36 Delano .36

Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 51 Arvin 55 Porterville .52, Delano 50 *=data missing.

Sky cover: Visalia 80% today, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield 90% today tomorrow 90%,

Average of the past seven days soil temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Arvin 58, Porterville 52, Delano 50 *=data missing.

Soil Temperatures:

Average Temperatures: 58/37 Record Temperatures: 75/30

Heating Degree Days This Season. 555 +81 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 1.30, 8675% of average, Monthly ..64

Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 75, 89% of average, Monthly: .01

Average Temperature This Month: 46.8 -1.2 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1^st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 264, Parlier 354 Arvin 244 , Belridge 307, Shafter 307, Stratford 327, Delano 325, Porterville 341 courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:56, Sunset, 4:43, hours of daylight, 9:48

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 33 / 0.48 /

MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 32 / 0.18 /

FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 52 / 38 / 0.48 /

HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 36 / 0.33 /

NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / 0.24 /

BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 49 / 43 / 0.09 /

VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 53 / 40 / 0.30 /

PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 50 / 44 / 0.27 /

TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 49 / 41 / 0.00 /

Rainfall totals from October 1^st through September 30^th

^{SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR}

STOCKTON 0.00 1.92 86 4.32 194 2.23 13.45

MODESTO 0.00 1.90 109 3.06 176 1.74 12.27

MERCED 0.00 1.68 95 1.99 113 1.76 11.80

MADERA 0.00 0.88 61 0.65 45 1.45 10.79

FRESNO 0.00 1.30 86 1.57 104 1.51 10.99

HANFORD T 0.93 82 1.24 109 1.14 8.13

BAKERSFIELD 0.08 0.75 89 0.95 113 0.84 6.36

BISHOP T 0.47 69 0.78 115 0.68 4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.02 9 M M 0.23 2.20

SALINAS 0.00 1.77 89 2.19 111 1.98 12.58

PASO ROBLES 0.01 1.48 97 1.58 104 1.52 12.15

SANTA MARIA 0.03 1.23 70 1.40 80 1.75 13.32

Next report: December 3 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.