January 31, 2023
As of midday, most of the low cloud deck from the overnight hours had dissipated. There are some lingering clouds along the foothills of Tulare and Kern Counties, however, most of that will mix out after sunset. Currently, there’s a low center over southern Arizona while a ridge of high pressure stretches from southwest to northeast into Oregon and northern California. This is still sustaining a northeast flow aloft which has a fairly cold air mass over central California. With dew points in the mid to upper 30s, and mostly clear skies, expect many areas to drop below freezing tonight and, to a lesser extent, Wednesday night. By Thursday, a trough of low pressure will displace the high and will move through northern and central California. The dynamics this far south appear weak so rain will likely spread no further south than a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. This system will, however, switch the winds aloft from northeasterly to westerly, resulting in a warming trend. Our best chance of precipitation will be Sunday and Sunday night as a stronger low moves to a position off the Oregon coast. The active portion of this storm may move as far south as Kern County. Like most winter storms, the bulk of the energy will move into the northern half of the state.
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold tonight. Areas of fog will develop after midnight. Mostly clear Wednesday and Wednesday night with areas of fog developing after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Thursday leading to a minimal chance of light showers as far south as Merced County Thursday and Thursday night.. partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night and Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night leading to an increasing chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 30/61/32/64 | Reedley 30/60/33/65 | Dinuba 29/61/31/64 |
| Porterville 29/61/32/65 | Lindsay 28/60/32/65 | Delano 30/61/33/64 |
| Bakersfield 34/62/36/65 | Taft 35/60/39/64 | Arvin 31/62/34/65 |
| Lamont 32/62/34/64 | Pixley 30/60/33/65 | Tulare 29/60/32/63 |
| Woodlake 30/61/33/65 | Hanford 29/61/32/64 | Orosi 30/60/31/64 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph and variable in nature through Friday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Through Saturday, it looks like the only area in our district to receive any rain at all will be Merced County Thursday and Thursday night. Our best chance of precipitation will be Sunday and Sunday night as a stronger low becomes positioned off the Oregon coast and a trough extends into northern and central California. For the second day in a row, the GFS model shows precipitation spread as far south as Kern County. Monday through Wednesday of next week look dry. The two week model still shows the storm door being open between the 7th and the 13th.
Frost: The protective layer of low clouds that had covered portions of the south valley last night has largely dissipated. There are still a few patches of low clouds over Tulare and Kern Counties, but I look for these to largely dissipate, also, after sunset. This will lead to a fairly strong radiational cooling night. Dew points are mostly in the mid to upper 30s so it won’t get horribly cold. Even so, unprotected frog pond type locations could potentially drop between 27 an d28 degrees with most flat terrain regions between 29 and 32. Hillsides will be above freezing. The inversion tonight will be good with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Lows Thursday morning will be generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer. A trough of low pressure approaching the coast Thursday will usher in a westerly flow, spreading in milder air. Cloud cover should keep most locations above freezing Friday, continuing over the weekend as a somewhat stronger storm spreads more clouds and showers over the area Sunday and Sunday night. For now, there’s nothing on medium range models to suggest a cold pattern on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmin
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 1 morning
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