February 2, 2023
The leading edge of a cloud deck ahead of a weak trough of low pressure is just now moving onshore along the northern and central California coast. these clouds will increase during the course of the day with light showers spreading over northern California tonight and light showers reaching as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line Friday. The upper air support for this system pretty much vanishes south of Merced County so the remainder of the valley will remain dry. A brief and weak ridge of high pressure will follow later Friday night and Saturday, maintaining dry weather over the region. That will quickly deteriorate by Saturday evening as the high breaks down, allowing a stronger Pacific storm to position off the Oregon coast, sending a trough of low pressure and a cold front down the valley later Saturday night and Sunday. This system will have enough upper air support to sustain showers all the way down the valley with showers continuing Sunday night. Th back side of the trough will clear the Sierra Nevada by Monday morning. High pressure oriented southwest to northeast will follow by early Tuesday, creating a north/northeast flow aloft and resulting in a cooler air mass. This air mass is by no means cold, however low to mid 30s are likely Tuesday through Wednesday of next week. after Monday, dry weather can be expected through the week. models show a cut off low just off shore Sunday which, theoretically, could result in light showers.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Cloudy tonight with light showers spreading as far south as Merced County Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Light showers likely Sunday and Sunday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday and Monday night. Mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 64/41/65/36/67 | Reedley 65/42/66/36/66 | Dinuba 64/42/65/35/65 |
| Porterville 66/42/66/37/67 | Lindsay 65/41/66/35/67 | Delano 67/43/67/38/67 |
| Bakersfield 68/46/66/42/67 | Taft 66/46/65/45/66 | Arvin 67/43/65/42/67 |
| Lamont 67/44/65/42/66 | Pixley 64/42/65/39/65 | Tulare 64/41/65/37/65 |
| Woodlake 64/43/66/37/67 | Hanford 65/43/66/38/66 | Orosi 64/42/66/35/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Showers likely 45/65 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 39/58 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/54 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 33/59 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 35/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 7 through February 13: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph and variable in nature through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The next Pacific storm is weak and will spread light showers no further south than a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line Friday. we will finally receive some light showers later Saturday night through Sunday night as a low off the Oregon coast develops a trough all the way into central California. Light showers will spread over the entire valley Saturday, continuing Sunday night. Rainfall amounts will range from possibly .25 to .33 in Merced County. The usual rain shadow will reduce amounts on the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties down to .10 or so while locations generally east of Hwy 99 will range between .15 to .25. Kern County’s rain shadow will do a job there with trace amounts to possibly a few hundredths. Dry weather will return Monday morning, leading to a dry week ahead. A cut off low shows up just off the central coast next Sunday, which we’ll study in the coming days.
Frost Discussion: Even with minor moderation, temperatures fell below freezing in many locations last night. As of 6:00am, Lindsay was the coldest at 28 degrees. Porterville, Ivanhoe, and Sanger chilled down to 29 with most other locations in the low to mid 30s. All locations tonight will be above freezing as cloud cover is already advancing over the area from a weak off shore system which will maintain heavy cloud cover tonight. Less cloud cover will be available for Friday night. It’s possible coldest locations could dip into the lower 30s, but by and large an uneventful night. A stronger system will spread heavy cloud cover and showers down the valley Saturday and Sunday, ,continuing through Monday morning. The air mass swinging in behind this system will be colder, but certainly nothing unusual as colder locations will chill into the low to mid 30s. beyond Thursday, most if not all locations will be above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/60%, Delano 97%40%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .42, Arvin .44, Porterville .38, Delano .42 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 47, Arvin 49, Porterville 45, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/39 Record Temperatures: 74/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1580 -30 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 171% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 140% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 45.5 -2.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1023, Arvin 879 Belridge 956, Shafter 996, Stratford 998, Delano 1015, Porterville 986 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:59 Sunset, 5:26, hours of daylight, 10:26
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 61 / M / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.50 213 8.21 113 7.26 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.43 207 8.15 126 6.48 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.91 214 5.85 97 6.02 11.80
MADERA 0.00 4.86 91 1.52 29 5.33 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 169 5.21 96 5.45 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.81 169 4.61 114 4.04 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.32 138 3.56 114 3.12 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 344 4.50 181 2.49 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 45 M M 0.87 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.97 134 6.11 91 6.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.35 204 6.26 96 6.54 13.32
Nest report: February 2 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.