March 11, 2023 pm
Doppler radar as of 12:30 pm was depicting generally light showers all along the Sierra Nevada. Scattered showers are also breaking out over portions of the valley floor,. A very moist subtropical jet stream continues to run from west to east across the central and eastern Pacific and into California. A temporary lull in the action will begin tonight, although showers will likely continue over the Sierra Nevada.
The next event will again be a very major lower latitude storm. There are two main concerns with this event. First, of course, is another round of heavy rain falling on top of the snow pack and the ramifications of flooding. latest precipitation estimates for the valley floor from Monday night through Wednesday are between 1 and 2 inches on the east side of the valley north of Kern County with somewhat lighter amounts elsewhere. The second concern will be wind from late Monday night through Tuesday as a robust low will be just west of San Francisco with higher pressure over southern California and the Desert Southwest. More on this below in the wind discussion. The weather will be very active from Monday night through Wednesday.
Storm number 3 still doesn’t look like anything to write home about with only a minimal chance of light showers on Friday, mainly from Fresno County north. However, as mentioned this morning, a fourth storm embedded within this west to east flow will arrive during the second half of next weekend with active weather possibly lasting into the following Monday.
Forecast: Scattered showers through the late evening hours with a minimal chance of a few showers after midnight. A chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday with a chance of showers, mainly near the foothills. Rain spreading in from the west Monday night, mainly after midnight. Rain at times Tuesday through Tuesday night. Showers Wednesday, tapering off late in the day. A chance of showers Wednesday evening. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday through Thursday night. Mostly cloudy Friday with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north.
Temperatures:
| Madera 48/68/48/69 | Reedley 50/68/49/69 | Dinuba 47/67/48/68 |
| Porterville 50/69/49/69 | Lindsay 49/68/50/69 | Delano 51/69/51/70 |
| Bakersfield 53/69/51/70 | Taft 52/68/52/69 | Arvin 52/70/52/71 |
| Lamont 51/69/51/70 | Pixley 49/68/49/69 | Tulare 48/67/48/69 |
| Woodlake 49/68/48/69 | Hanford 50/68/48/69 | Orosi 47/68/48/68 |
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be variable to around 15 mph with locally stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Sunday through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 mph. winds late Monday night and Tuesday will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to25 mph are possible, especially along the western side of Fresno County and over much of Kings County. An intensifying surface low will center just west of San Francisco Tuesday. This will set up a strong pressure gradient between off shore northern California and southern California and the Desert Southwest. This configuration is ripe for strong winds in Kern County, especially near the base of the Tehachapi. For now, we’ll forecast the possibility of 50 mph plus winds near the base of the Tehachapi with gusts to 40 possible as far north as Bakersfield. Winds will decrease Tuesday night with much lighter winds Wednesday.
Rain: Scattered showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms will continue through the late evening hours. I wouldn’t even completely eliminate the chance for a few showers Sunday and Monday, especially near the foothills. Rainfall amounts from now through Monday evening will be generally less than .25.
The next potent Pacific storm will arrive Monday night. Rain will spread in from the west, continuing through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times. Turning to showers Wednesday.
Rainfall amounts along the eastern portion of the valley north of Kern County, between Monday night and Wednesday evening, should add up to another one to two inches of rain. The west side of the valley should pick up anywhere from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter. The valley portion of Kern County will likely pick up less than a half an inch due to the rain shadow.
What is left of a Pacific storm will move through Friday for just a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.
Yet another mild Pacific storm will arrive during the second half of this coming weekend. It’s also quite mild, but it doesn’t compare to the past system at this point.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next several days.
Next report: March 12 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.