March 12, 2023 am
Yesterday’s theme was isolated thunderstorms that broke out in the afternoon, causing another round of local flooding. Satellite imagery this morning shows two impulses moving into northern California. The first has already spread showers over most of northern California. The second will arrive this afternoon. It appears most of the activity today and tonight will be from Fresno County north where scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are again possible. We can expect relatively quiet conditions Monday into Monday night with the exception of the Sierra Nevada where showers will continue. Satellite imagery shows a large mass of clouds north of Hawaii which will sweep eastward towards the California coast, arriving Monday night with widespread precipitation Tuesday through Thursday. It seems to be a given that there will be more flooding with this event. More than six inches of precipitation can be expected over the Sierra from Monday night through Wednesday with two to five inches over the foothills regions. Valley rainfall stats are discussed below in the rainfall discussion. The rain wil come to an end Wednesday night with dry weather through Thursday night. A fragmented ow will approach the coast on Friday for a minimal chance of showers Friday and Friday night. Yet another low will approach the coast Sunday. However, at this point this system does not look impressive, we’ll still add a chance of showers to the forecast for the second half of the second the chance for strong winds in some areas is discussed below.
Forecast: A chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening, mainly from Fresno County north. Becoming partly cloudy later tonight through Monday. rain spreading over the valley Monday night. Rain at times Tuesday and Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times. Showers Wednesday, tapering off in the afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday night. A minimal chance of light showers fray and Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night a chance of rain Sunday
Temperatures:
| Madera 68/49/69/52/64 | Reedley 69/48/70/53/65 | Dinuba 68/49//69/52/63 |
| Porterville 70/50/70/53/65 | Lindsay 69/48/70/53/63 | Delano 71/50/71/53/65 |
| Bakersfield 71/52/70/54/65 | Taft 71/53/70/55/65 | Arvin 72/50/71/54/64 |
| Lamont 71/53/70/53/65 | Pixley 70/48/70/53/63 | Tulare 69/48/69//52/63 |
| Woodlake 69/49/70/53/64 | Hanford 71/49/70/53/64 | Orosi 69/47/70/52/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Showers 47/64 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 41/59 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 43/65 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 43/67 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 48/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23 This model continues to show an active storm track into California. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds today through Monday night will be variable to 15 mph with stronger gusts near showers and thunderstorms. Significant differences in pressure will set up by late Monday night, peaking by Tuesday afternoon between off shore northern California and the desert southwest gusty southwest winds will become apparent up the valley between late Monday night and Tuesday night. Winds along the west side will average 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 possible. Strong down slope winds will be possible with gusts exceeding 50 mph possible at the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Gusts to near 40 mph will be possible near Bakersfield. These winds will die off by Wednesday morning as pressure patterns begin to relax.
Rain Discussion: It appears most of the activity through tonight will be from Fresno County north as two separate pieces of energy move inland to our north. We’ll get a break in the active weather later tonight through Monday. satellite imagery shows a large batch of clouds north of Hawaii which is racing towards the California coast and will arrive later Monday night, continuing through Tuesday night, locally heavy at times showers will continue through much of the day Wednesday along with the possibility of thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts from Monday night through Wednesday along the eastern sector of the valley from Merced County southward to Tulare County should add up to between ocean two inches. Over the western side of the valley from western Fresno County through Kings County should pick up between .75 and 1.25. The valley portion of Kern County should pick up between .50 and 1.00. dry weather will return by Thursday, continuing through Thursday night. Only a minimal chance of light showers exists between Friday and Friday night with dry weather Saturday through Saturday night with another chance of showers Sunday. Models for the following week pick up on episodes of active weather.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/92%, Delano 94%86%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .51, Arvin 60, Porterville .56, Delano .61 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Arvin 53, Porterville 49, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2198. +111 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 15.49, Monthly 2.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 7.43, Monthly: .67
Average Temperature This Month 48.7 -6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:14, sunset, 7:03. Hours of daylight, 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 52 / 0.61 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / M / 0.32 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 56 / 0.58 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / M / 0.63 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 52 / 0.38 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 57 / 0.44 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 55 / 1.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 54 / 1.37 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.52 19.53 189 8.21 79 10.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.42 16.60 179 8.17 88 9.26 12.27
MERCED 0.55 16.65 189 5.88 67 8.79 11.80
MADERA 0.59 8.88 111 1.58 20 7.97 10.79
FRESNO 0.88 15.49 195 5.43 68 7.95 10.99
HANFORD 1.06 12.07 203 5.29 89 5.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.48 7.42 159 4.35 93 4.66 6.36
BISHOP 1.98 12.20 342 4.50 126 3.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.93 62 M M 1.49 2.20
SALINAS 1.42 12.40 127 6.26 64 9.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 1.04 17.16 180 7.37 77 9.52 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.72 19.33 189 6.35 62 10.21 13.32
Next report: March 13 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.