August 19, 2023
Summary Hurricane Hilary, as of 4:00 this morning, was located 250 miles to the west of the southern tip of Baja. The storm was moving north/northwest at 13 mph. the exact track from the National Hurricane Center places the center of circulation over northern Baja by midday Sunday then shows it accelerating through southern California as a tropical storm with the center somewhere near Inyo County by 10:00pm Sunday night.
Tropical storm force winds are expected over much of southern California with strong, gusty winds over the Kern County mountains Sunday and Sunday night. Winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible in the southern San Joaquin Valley with potentially stronger gusts near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
High resolution models this morning spit out a number of 2.17 inches of rain for Bakersfield and 1.77 for Porterville. The River Forecast Center out of Sacramento is still predicting 2 to 3 inches of rain in the southeast corner of the valley, including Bakersfield, 1.50 to 2.00 in southeastern Tulare County and from .50 to 1.00 from south Merced County down through Fresno County. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are already pounding parts of Imperial and San Diego Counties at this hour.
This activity is moving northward at a pretty good clip and will arrive over the Kern County mountains and deserts later this morning with a chance of isolated thunderstorms and showers over the Kern County mountains with a chance of some activity over the valley floor later this afternoon. The precipitation pattern later this afternoon through roughly midday Sunday will be spotty. The next bank of deep tropical moisture will move into central California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. T
he moisture field will pull rapidly northward Monday night with showers continuing, ending by sunrise Tuesday morning. A ridge of high pressure will finally take over Tuesday into Wednesday for dry weather to take over. Models do show a great deal of monsoonal moisture moving into the Desert Southwest Wednesday through Saturday for a continuing risk of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast Mostly clear skies this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday. Rain likely Sunday night through early Monday evening with a chance of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy later Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera
99/71/84/71/87 |
Reedley
100/72/84/70/87 |
Dinuba
98/70/83/69/85 |
| Porterville
100/71/83/69/84 |
Lindsay
100/70/83/68/85 |
Delano
98/71/83/68/85 |
| Bakersfield
99/75/81/72/86 |
Taft
97/73/80/71/82 |
Arvin
98/73/85/72/85 |
| Lamont
98/73/83/70/84 |
Pixley
99/71/84/69/86 |
Tulare
98/70/84/70/85 |
| Woodlake
98/71/84/69/84 |
Hanford
99/71/84/70/85 |
Orosi
98/71/83/68/84 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 64/89 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 68/99 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 71/96 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 67/96 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 65/98 |
Two Week Outlook: August 25 through August 31 This model is indicating a trough of low pressure will be along the west coast for much of the period, resulting in somewhat below average temperatures. The monsoon will continue but will be too far to the east to affect central California, so expect dry weather.
August: This model indicates temperatures over the next 30 days will be near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry weather will continue, although we will have to keep a watchful eye to the south for possible tropical activity.
August, September, October: This model shows above average temperatures for much of the west, particularly the Desert Southwest. It also points to below average precipitation over the Desert Southwest, possibly meaning a less active monsoon season. The chance of precipitation for central California appears to be near average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally out of the northwest at no more than 15 mph. Winds tonight through Saturday night in Kern County and possibly Tulare County, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph possible and with locally stronger gusts near the base of the Tehachapi. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Sunday and Monday will be variable to 20 mph with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be generally at or less than 15 mph.
Rain Discussion: High resolution models this morning spit out a number of 2.17 inches of rain for Bakersfield and 1.77 for Porterville. The River Forecast Center out of Sacramento is still predicting 2 to 3 inches of rain in the southeast corner of the valley, including Bakersfield, 1.50 to 2.00 in southeastern Tulare County and from .50 to 1.00 from south Merced County down through Fresno County. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are already pounding parts of Imperial and San Diego Counties at this hour.
This activity is moving northward at a pretty good clip and will arrive over the Kern County mountains and deserts later this morning with a chance of isolated thunderstorms and showers over the Kern County mountains with a chance of some activity over the valley floor later this afternoon. The precipitation pattern later this afternoon through roughly midday Sunday will be spotty. The next bank of deep tropical moisture will move into central California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. T
he moisture field will pull rapidly northward Monday night with showers continuing, ending by sunrise Tuesday morning. A ridge of high pressure will finally take over Tuesday into Wednesday for dry weather to take over. Models do show a great deal of monsoonal moisture moving into the Desert Southwest Wednesday through Saturday for a continuing risk of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 50s rising into the low to mid 60s tonight and Sunday.
Kern: Mid to upper 50s rising into the low to mid 60s tonight and ‘Sunday.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.92, Parlier, 1.69, Arvin 2.00, Delano 1.74.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Arvin 83, Delano 83 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 96/65 Record Temperatures: 110/54
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 1489 +170 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.83, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 10.26, Monthly: T
Average Temperature this Month 83.1 +2.6 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:20, Sunset, 7:44. hours of daylight, 13:25
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H L
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 68 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 99 / 66 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 101 / 76 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 70 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 102 / 67 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 100 / 69 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 64 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 23.21 174 9.81 73 13.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 20.17 165 9.00 74 12.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.86 178 7.44 63 11.75 11.80
MADERA 0.00 11.62 108 2.21 21 10.76 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.83 163 6.34 58 10.94 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.59 180 6.36 79 8.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 10.26 163 5.41 86 6.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 14.72 313 5.64 120 4.70 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.25 64 1.70 87 1.96 2.20
SALINAS T 13.95 111 7.31 58 12.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 20.89 173 8.70 72 12.09 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 24.05 182 7.79 59 13.24 13.32
Next report: August 19 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.