October 14, 2023
Summary Essentially, we are under a zonal flow across the eastern Pacific and into north America. The storm track continues to be aimed at the Pacific Northwest. The high will build further north over the weekend, warming temperatures into the mid 80s each day with possibly some upper 80s here and there. The high will give way to a trough of low pressure Monday night and Tuesday. Partly cloudy skies will prevail during this period along with slightly cooler temperatures as the air aloft cools somewhat and modified air moves down the valley. Even so, only a minor cooling trend is expected as we move from the mid to upper 80s down to the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is average for this time of year. Models have been very consistent on the development of a high over the eastern Pacific and western US Wednesday night and Thursday. That will return Indian summer type weather back to the valley with readings pushing back into the low 90s next Thursday through Saturday. The next weak trough of low pressure will knock on our door next Saturday for another cooling trend as this yo-yo pattern continues. Any precipitation for the next week to 10 days will remain north of the growing area.
Forecast Mostly clear through Monday. partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night. Mostly clear and warmer Wednesday through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 84//49/86/52/86 | Reedley 85/49/86/53/85 | Dinuba 83/48/85/52/85 |
| Porterville 85/49/86/51/85 | Lindsay 84/48/85/51/85 | Delano 86/51/86//53/85 |
| Bakersfield 86/55/87//58/86 | Taft 83/59/85/61/82 | Arvin 86/54/87/55/86 |
| Lamont 86/54/87/55/87 | Pixley 83/52/85/53/85 | Tulare 83/48/85//51/85 |
| Woodlake 85/50/86/52/85 | Hanford 85/51/86/52/85 | Orosi 84//49/86/51/85 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Partly cloudy 54/81 | Wednesday Mostly clear 53/86 | Thursday Mostly clear 55/92 | Friday Mostly clear 56/93 | Saturday Mostly clear 54/90 |
Two Week Outlook: October 21 through October 27 This model shows a large upper high covering the eastern Pacific and the western 1/3, resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through Monday will be generally less than 12 mph afternoons and evenings and generally at or less than 5 mph during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion. Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, 1.15, Parlier, ,93, Arvin 1.12, Delano 1.03.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier *, Arvin 74, Delano 70 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 80/52, Record Temperatures: 100/41
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2102 +251 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.2 +2.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:06. Sunset, 6:23. hours of daylight, 11:18
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 86 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 86 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 86 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 88 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 85 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.18 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.01 6 0.00 0 0.16 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 250 0.00 0 0.06 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 120 T 0 0.15 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.07 44 0.00 0 0.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.12 13.32
Next report: October 15 At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.