October 23, 2023
Summary As of the time of this writing, light showers were occurring over mainly Fresno, Tulare and Kern Counties. Merced has recorded .15 and Los Banos .06 with numerous reports of trace amounts. We are currently on the northern rim of a trough of low pressure moving through southern California. We’ll keep a chance of showers in the forecast for this morning. By this afternoon, the low will have dropped far enough south to take the chance of precipitation out of the forecast. Beginning Tuesday, a low will drop into the Pacific Northwest with a dry westerly flow underneath the low into California. Models show the low over the Pacific dropping into California Friday night and Saturday. Currently, it appears precipitation will be confined to the Sierra Nevada, however, it’s early enough in the rainfall season to scrutinize these systems. Temperatures through the work week will range in the mid 70s, possibly dropping into the upper 60s and lower 70s as that low slides into California. The medium range outlook will also have to be watched closely as both the ten day and two week models show a chance of precipitation.
Forecast Scattered showers for a time in the south valley, otherwise it will be partly cloudy this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 72//52/78/52/78 | Reedley 73/53/77/53/77 | Dinuba 72/53/78/53//77 |
| Porterville 71’54’//78/51/77 | Lindsay 72//52/78/53/79 | Delano 71//54/79/54/78 |
| Bakersfield 71//55/78/55/78 | Taft 70/57/76//58/76 | Arvin 72/56/79//57/79 |
| Lamont 72/56/78/57/78 | Pixley 73/52/78/51/77 | Tulare 71/51/77/53/78 |
| Woodlake 72//52/77/52/78 | Hanford 72/55/78/55/78 | Orosi 72/53/78/54/78 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Mostly clear 49/72 | Friday Partly cloudy 45/70 | Saturday Partly cloudy 44/72 | Sunday Partly cloudy 42/68 | Monday Mostly clear 41/73 |
Two Week Outlook: October 30 through November 5: This model shows a fairly active storm track across the eastern Pacific and into the western US The chance for measurable rain during this period is decent with above average temperatures continuing.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas to southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through Thursday will be generally in the 5 to 15 mph range and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and early evenings. Periods of near calm conditions can be expected, mainly in the late night to early morning hours.
Rain Discussion. There remains a lingering chance of showers this morning, mainly in the south valley. Dry weather will begin this afternoon through Friday, and probably through the weekend, I’m hedging a bit on the Friday night through Saturday time frame as it appears a trough of low pressure will drop southward into central California. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast while watching carefully.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .93, Parlier, .84, Arvin 1.02, Delano .89.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier *, Arvin 72, Delano 69 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 76/49, Record Temperatures: 90/35
Cooling Degree Days This Season. 2135 +274 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno T, Monthly .T
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .15, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 70.2 +3.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:15. Sunset, 6:11. hours of daylight, 10:58
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 76 / 49 / 0.15 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 48 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 57 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 75 / 58 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 74 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 57 / 0.06 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.19 0.19 48 0.00 0 0.40 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 0.01 3 0.00 0 0.31 12.27
MERCED 0.15 0.16 43 0.00 0 0.37 11.80
MADERA T T 0 0.00 0 0.24 10.79
FRESNO T T 0 0.00 0 0.32 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.27 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.15 100 0.00 0 0.15 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 72 T 0 0.25 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 2.20
SALINAS 0.06 0.13 37 0.01 3 0.35 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.32 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.29 13.32
Next report: October 24
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