November 22, 2023
Summary: The ridge of high pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere which resulted in above average temperatures the past few days is beginning to be suppressed southward in response to a trough of low pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest. This trough will drop a trough into California from the Pacific Northwest. A low center will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in showers for the interior west but nothing for California. California will be right on the western edge of the low which will create a north/northeast flow. That, combined with an off shore surface flow, will mix down a somewhat cooler air mass. It’s yet to be determined where dew points end up beginning Friday. A combination of mostly clear skies over the weekend and into next week, a cooler air mass, and somewhat drier air will lead to areas of frost in all but the urban centers. Low to mid 30s will be widespread beginning Friday morning with coldest locations down to 27 to29 in unprotected low regions. It appears we will have a string of these days…mostly clear skies with daytime highs in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s with upper 20s in the usual cold spots. Longer range models show a possibly wet pattern beginning December 2 or 3.
Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine today with patchy morning fog. Variable cloudiness tonight and Thanksgiving morning. mostly clear skies Thursday afternoon through Wednesday of next week with patchy night and morning fog with areas of frost.
Temperatures
| Madera 69/39/67/35/63 | Reedley 70/38/67/34/63 | Dinuba 68/38/66/34/63 |
| Porterville 70/38/67/35/63 | Lindsay 70/38/67/33/63 | Delano 70/39//67/36/62 |
| Bakersfield 71/43//68/40/65 | Taft 67/48/63/43/60 | Arvin 71/39/68/36/64 |
| Lamont 71/40/68/37/64 | Pixley 70/39/67/36/63 | Tulare 68/37/66/33/62 |
| Woodlake 68/39/67/34/62 | Hanford 69/38/66/34/61 | Orosi 68/37/67/33/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Mostly clear 32/63 | Sunday Mostly clear 32/64 | Monday Mostly clear 31/61 | Tuesday Mostly clear 32/64 | Wednesday Mostly clear 31/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 29 through December 5 This model indicates the return of a wet pattern to central California. A broad trough of low pressure will cover the eastern Pacific with the possibility of two winter storms affecting the region. Temperatures should run marginally above average.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through probably the first or second days of December. The past three model runs have indicated a broad trough of low pressure approaching the west coast with precipitation affecting most of California. If I had to pick a date, I’d say the first system would arrive December 3 and the second about 48 hours later.
Frost Discussion: The ridge of high pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere which resulted in above average temperatures the past few days is beginning to be suppressed southward in response to a trough of low pressure currently over the Pacific Northwest. This trough will drop a trough into California from the Pacific Northwest. A low center will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in showers for the interior west but nothing for California. California will be right on the western edge of the low which will create a north/northeast flow. That, combined with an off shore surface flow, will mix down a somewhat cooler air mass. It’s yet to be determined where dew points end up beginning Friday. A combination of mostly clear skies over the weekend and into next week, a cooler air mass, and somewhat drier air will lead to areas of frost in all but the urban centers. Low to mid 30s will be widespread beginning Friday morning with coldest locations down to 27 to29 in unprotected low regions. It appears we will have a string of these days…mostly clear skies with daytime highs in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s with upper 20s in the usual cold spots. Longer range models show a possibly wet pattern beginning December 2 or 3.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .48, Arvin .69, Delano .49.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Arvin 61, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 62/41, Record Temperatures: 77/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 195 -106 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .21
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 58.0 +3.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 98 Arvin, 76 Belridge, 82 Shafter, 77 Stratford, 92 Delano 82. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:45. Sunset, 4:45 hours of daylight, 10:02
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 76 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.64 41 1.24 78 1.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.95 79 1.19 98 1.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.00 75 0.99 74 1.33 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 42 0.50 49 1.03 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 19 0.66 58 1.13 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 15 0.59 68 0.87 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 52 0.66 108 0.61 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 45 0.46 84 0.55 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 6 0.02 11 0.18 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 16 1.46 106 1.38 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.74 158 0.71 65 1.10 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.33 26 0.99 78 1.27 13.32
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Next report: November 22/pm
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