January 16, 2018
Summary: It is very difficult to tell that a frontal system moved through central California a few hours ago. It had such little impact that it didn’t even disturb the lowest level of the atmosphere. Thus, widespread fog and low clouds are again prevalent throughout the valley. In fact, at last report every location from Bakersfield to Merced was reporting a visibility of ¼ mile or less with the exception of Fresno which is reporting ½ mile.
Satellite imagery is showing cloudiness moving into northern and central California. This, combined with the fog, will make it a challenge for temperature forecasting. If and when the fog burns off, readings will be in the low to mid 60s. Where the fog and low clouds remain persistent during the afternoon, only mid 50s can be expected.
A weak ridge will fill in behind this morning’s system and will govern our weather Wednesday into Thursday. The next cold low will drop southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska later Thursday night and Friday morning with some precipitation. How much is still largely undetermined as models still vary a great deal on this system’s strength and moisture field. Lift should squeeze out at least a foot of snow over the higher elevations. Showers will follow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as a colder, more unstable air mass moves through our region on a northwest flow aloft. No doubt, upsloping will occur along the west facing slopes of the Sierras and the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains.
There will be a brief dry period from Saturday night into Monday. The next low pressure system will then move southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska into California for at least a chance of rain Monday night or Tuesday.
Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds through Wednesday night with partial afternoon clearing possible. Variable cloudiness above the fog. Increasing cloudiness Thursday with a chance of showers Thursday night. periods of rain late Thursday night and Friday morning turning to showers Friday afternoon through about mid morning Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday night with areas of morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/46/61/45/63 | Reedley 58/45/61/44/63 | Dinuba 58/44/63/45/63 | |
| Porterville 60/44/63/45/64 | Lindsay 60/44/63/45/65 | Delano 60/46/59/46/65 | |
| Bakersfield 62/45/61/47/67 | Arvin 65/44/65/47/67 | Taft 63/48/65/49/67 | |
| Lamont 61/46/61/48/67 | Pixley 61/44/61/48/65 | Tulare 58/45/58/46/63 | |
| Woodlake 59/46/59/47/63 | Hanford 58/46/59/47/64 | Orosi 59/46/59/48/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Rain likely 48/57 |
Saturday
AM showers 38/56 |
Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/56 |
Monday
Increasing cloudiness 37/62 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 44/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: This model shows the storm track potentially moving into California from the Gulf of Alaska. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be below average with a reasonable chance of rain.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. Winds will become out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Thursday night. by Friday afternoon, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: Believe it or not, a frontal system moved through the valley this morning with virtually no impact. Expect dry weather for the remainder of the day and on through Thursday evening. The chance of rain will begin to increase after midnight Thursday night. by Friday morning, rain will reach into Kern County. Showers will follow Friday afternoon, possibly lasting into Saturday morning. Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon through at least Monday morning. It appears another system will affect the area sometime Monday night or Tuesday. For now, the potential of this system is unclear as there’s simply too much variance on model information.
As far as the Friday night/Saturday event goes, it’s possible a quarter to a third of an inch could fall, especially along the east side, from Fresno County north. Possibly a tenth or two could fall south of Fresno and down into Kern County.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing more than likely through Saturday morning. A cold weather system will move through Friday into Saturday morning, issuing in a colder air mass. Most of the forecast models indicate there will be plenty of cloud cover for Saturday morning, in which case the chance of frost would be eliminated. For now, it appears a chance of lower 30s is there for Sunday morning, but no widespread freezing conditions are expected. We may be dealing with increasing clouds Monday and Tuesday from the next low pressure system. This may give us a chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday, again eliminating the chance of frost.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 80%/100% Bakersfield, 75%/100%
Actual Humidity January 14, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/75%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 14, 2018: Stratford .19, Parlier .18, Blackwell, .25 Lindcove .20, Arvin .25, Orange Cove .21, Porterville .14, Delano .NA., Madera Two 14. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 56, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 56, Delano NA, Madera Two 55
7.2
Record Temperatures: 75/21. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1017, -404 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 54.0 +9.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.26. Month to Date: .82
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.60, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 536, Parlier, 575, Arvin, 502, Shafter, 635, Stratford, 575, Madera two, 868, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 593, Porterville, 807. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 52 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 58 10.14 168 6.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 61 8.31 156 5.32 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 39 8.42 166 5.08 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 25 7.06 135 5.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 27 8.42 185 4.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 38 5.04 113 4.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 35 4.65 185 2.52 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 4.06 182 2.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 41 7.60 148 5.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.16 43 7.66 153 5.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 36 8.29 155 5.36 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday afternoon, January 16