February 3, 2024
Summary: If high resolution modeling is accurate for this upcoming event, this storm will rival the top 5 storm events over California for the last 100 years. By midday Sunday, a 985 millibar surface low will be centered just to the west/northwest of the Golden Gate. Not only is the central pressure very low for this latitude, but a very juicy atmospheric river will be feeding into the southwest sector of the storm. A powerful system like this presents all kinds of forecast challenges. When you’re talking about rain shadows, orographically enhanced precipitation, atmospheric rivers of air, and several other factors, trying to discern rainfall amounts will be difficult, at best. For a summary of potential winds in the valley, read over the wind summary below. This monster will track east/northeast into California, beginning later tonight through Sunday. Models are still showing this to be a long lasting event, at least through Tuesday. Even after Tuesday, a moist feed of air from the subtropics will continue to affect California, especially the southern half of California. Models also show a cold low dropping southward out of the Gulf of Alaska Thursday and Friday for a chance of showers late next week. any precipitation from this system will be light. This morning’s two week model is the first one in more than two weeks to forecast dry weather between the 10th and 16th of February with below average temperatures.
Forecast: A chance of rain by sunset, otherwise increasing clouds today. Rain at times tonight through Tuesday, locally heavy at times Sunday through Monday. a good chance of showers Tuesday night. a chance of showers at any time between Wednesday and Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/47/63/50/62 | Reedley 58/46/60/51/61 | Dinuba 57/41/61/51/61 |
| Porterville 57/47/62/52/62 | Lindsay 57/47/60/49/60 | Delano 58/48/62/51/62 |
| Bakersfield 57/49/63/52/62 | Taft 55/48/60/52/59 | Arvin 58/48/62/53/62 |
| Lamont 58/48/63/51/63 | Pixley 57/46/63/48/62 | Tulare 56/45/60/51/61 |
| Woodlake 57/47/61/50/61 | Hanford 58/46/61/52/61 | Orosi 56/44/60/50/60 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Rain likely 43/62 | Wednesday Chance of showers 40/56 | Thursday Chance of showers 38/55 | Friday Chance of showers 40/58 | Saturday Partly cloudy 39/58 |
Two Week Forecast: February 10 through February 16: For the first time in more than two weeks, this model is projecting a dry forecast. Temperatures during this time frame should be near average.
Winds: The configuration on this morning’s surface model for late tonight through Sunday is very ominous. There are two main factors that generate wind. First is tremendous amounts of wind energy aloft, which we have. The second is large differences in surface pressure between one location and another, which we will have. Highest wind potential will begin late tonight and continue through Sunday night with peak winds occurring during the day Sunday. For the east side of the valley, north of the Kern County line, expect light winds today, becoming out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph tonight and 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph Sunday, decreasing to around 15 to 30 mph Sunday night and backing off to 8 to 15 mph Monday. for the west side of the valley, winds will be light today then begin to increase out of the southeast at 20 to 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph possible Sunday through Sunday evening. Much lighter winds will occur beginning Monday. for Kern County, which will be front and center with this storm, winds will be generally light today then begin to increase out of the south to southeast at 15 to 30 mph later tonight, increasing to 25 to 45 mph Sunday with gusts to near 60 mph as far north as Bakersfield. For the usual wind prone locations, such as Arvin, Edison, Taft, the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine, wind gusts to near 70 mph are likely with locally higher gusts. These winds will diminish to 20 to 30 mph later Sunday evening and generally in the 8 to 15 mph range Monday and beyond.
Rain: High resolution models between tonight and Wednesday night are indicating 2 to 3 inches of rain is possible on the valley floor from Fresno County north and 1 ½ to 2 inches in much of Tulare County. The River Forecast Center in Sacramento is indicating 1 ½ to 2 inches is possible even in places like Bakersfield. During powerful winter storms, strong rain shadows frequently develop on the valley facing sides of the Coast Range and the Kern County mountains. I’ve seen situations where ocean facing mountain ranges in San Luis Obispo and Santa Maria Counties receive 4 to 5 inches of rain and Bakersfield ends up with .10. this type of storm is one where this could occur, however models are showing an extremely juicy atmospheric river moving on shore Sunday. Once this storm moves off to the east by late Tuesday evening, the chance of much lighter showers exists as a moist flow continues across the Pacific and into California through Friday. Models seem to be falling into line now on several days of dry weather beginning next weekend.
Frost: All locations will remain above freezing for at least the next week to ten days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford .44, Parlier .45, Arvin .48, Delano .51.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Arvin 57, Delano 57
Average Temperatures: 59/39, Record Temperatures: 77/25
Heating Degree Days Season. 1172 -454 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .3.63, Monthly .83
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.42, Monthly: .81
Average Temperature this Month 55.3 +6.8 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 663 Arvin, 589 Belridge, 579 Shafter, 636 Stratford, 642 Delano 658. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:59. Sunset, 5:27 hours of daylight, 10:27
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 43 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 42 / 0.05 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 45 / 0.13 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 61 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 43 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 60 / 46 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 43 / 0.05 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 44 / 0.05 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
MERCED 0.01 7.05 116 12.92 212 6.09 11.80
MADERA 0.05 4.61 86 4.86 90 5.39 10.79
FRESNO 0.13 3.63 66 9.20 167 5.51 10.99
HANFORD 0.04 3.78 92 6.81 167 4.09 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.09 3.41 108 4.32 137 3.16 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.87 35 8.57 340 2.52 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.98 111 0.39 44 0.88 2.20
SALINAS 0.73 6.09 90 8.97 132 6.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.02 10.17 161 12.82 203 6.32 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.13 5.96 90 13.35 201 6.63 13.32