February 19, 2024
Summary: I’m not at all surprised to see the development of thunderstorms in the valley this afternoon. Daytime heating has warmed the valley floor to the point where warm currents of air are rising skyward, triggering these storms. Doppler radar indicated the possibility of one inch hail with one cell moving between Tulare and Lindsay. The center of the low pressure system is still off the northern California coast. The counterclockwise circulation around this low will cause bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms to move over the valley through Tuesday night. rainfall amounts from this point on will vary widely. Locations in the path of a thunderstorm could easily pick up a half inch or more. Models show the parent low moving northward just off the Washington/Oregon coast and it will essentially dissipate late Thursday and Friday. Another low from the north Pacific will track southward to a position off the northern California coast by Saturday. On Sunday, this system will move eastward through southern California. It’s unclear at this time whether or not this storm will result in additional moisture for the valley. Over the weekend, the center of the low will stay too far off shore to affect the valley, so it appears any measurable precipitation would have to occur late Sunday and Monday.
Forecast: Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. Scattered showers Tuesday night. a chance of showers Wednesday, mainly in the morning. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. variable cloudiness Saturday and Saturday night with a slight chance of showers. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday through Monday with a chance of showers.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/65/45/62 | Reedley 45/67/47/62 | Dinuba 44/65/46/62 |
| Porterville 46/66/46/61 | Lindsay 44/65/45/62 | Delano 48/67/47/61 |
| Bakersfield 49/67/48/62 | Taft 50/61/49/59 | Arvin 49/68/49/63 |
| Lamont 50/67/48/62 | Pixley 44/66/46/61 | Tulare 43/64/45/61 |
| Woodlake 44/65/47/61 | Hanford 46/67/48/62 | Orosi 43/66/47/61 |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times along the eastern side of the valley north of Kern County. Winds in western Merced southward through Kings County will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Local gusts to 45 mph are possible today. Winds in Kern County will be mainly out of the south to southwest at 15 to 25 mph at times. Gusts to near 50 cannot be ruled out in the extreme south today. Winds tonight through Wednesday night will be generally in the 8 to 15 mph range. Local gusts to near 25 are possible near thunderstorms. Winds Thursday will be generally at or less than 10mph.
Rain: Thunderstorms are percolating from Madera County southward to Delano as of the time of this writing, with plenty of breaks in the cloud deck, areas of sunshine will continue to destabilize the atmosphere. There will be showers through the evening hours. Periods of showers will continue Tuesday, decreasing in coverage Tuesday night. in all likelihood, Wednesday will be a transition day as the low weakens and veers further north. Thursday through probably Saturday will be dry. A new weak weather system will be off the northern California coast Saturday then drift southward off the central California coast Sunday and Monday. it may move inland Sunday night and Monday. if we receive any measurable precipitation from this system at all, the greatest risk will most likely be Sunday night and Monday.
Frost: Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.