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Forecast

February 1, 2018/report

February 1, 2018

Summary:  There are pockets of dense fog this morning, again mainly up the center of the valley.  At last report, the visibility at Hanford was down to ¼ of a mile and visibility was down to ½ mile at Visalia.  Many other locations are ranging between 1 and 3 miles.  There is also a great deal of high clouds, mainly from Fresno County northward.  Some of these high clouds will spread into the south valley today, but there will not be enough to inhibit very warm temperatures for this time of year with many locations coming in at roughly 10 degrees above average.  The freezing level this morning is 13,700 feet, which is a good illustration of just how warm the air aloft is.  Most foothill and coastal areas will be well into the 70s through the weekend and beyond and even on the valley floor, warmest locations will sneak into the lower 70s.

 

A big ridge of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western one-third of the U.S.  The only major change over the next 5 to 7 days will be the fact that this ridge will build further and further north, sending polar air into the eastern half of the country and maintaining well above average temperatures over the western one-third of the U.S., including central California.

 

Areas of ground fog will continue to develop, mainly towards the center of the valley, each morning through the weekend and beyond.  For now, the next 7 to 10 days appear dry as the storm track is forced far to the north.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday, but high clouds will mix in from time to time along with areas of night and morning fog, mainly up the center of the valley north of Kern County.  Mostly clear skies will prevail Friday night through Thursday of next week with pockets of ground fog later nights through the mid morning hours.  Continued hazy.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 67/40/68/41/68 Reedley 67/39/67/40/68 Dinuba 66/39/66/41/67
Porterville 68/39/68/40/69 Lindsay 67/39/67/40/69 Delano 68/42/69/43/70
Bakersfield 70/47/70/48/72 Arvin 71/43/72/44/73 Taft 69/50/71/51/71
Lamont 71/43/71/44/72 Pixley 68/41/69/42/71 Tulare 67/39/67/40/67
Woodlake 68/39/68/41/69 Hanford 68/42/68/43/68 Orosi 67/39/68/40/68

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

AM fog/PM sun

43/70

Monday

AM fog/PM sun

44/71

Tuesday

AM fog/PM sun

44/71

Wednesday

AM fog/PM sun

43/72

Thursday

AM fog/PM sun

44/72

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 9 through February 15:  This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast.  This pattern would drive the storm track well north.  Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.

 

February:  This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month.  In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.

 

February, March, April:  This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months.  If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week and possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week.

 

Lows Tonight: 

All locations will be above freezing tonight.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Visalia, 60%/100%  Bakersfield, 50/90%

Actual Humidity January 30, 2018: Porterville, 97%/45%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 70%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 30, 2018: Stratford .46, Parlier .44, Blackwell, .NA Lindcove .44, Arvin .39, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .41, Delano .39., Madera Two .41.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 51, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 50, Delano 49, Madera Two 51

7.2

Record Temperatures: 75/26. Average Temperatures: 58/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1280, -446 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for January so far, 51.0 +5.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 1, 2017  Fresno: 1.64 season. or -3.94.  Month to Date: 1.23

Since October 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  1.10, or -1.98,  Month to Date: 1.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 680, Parlier, 707, Arvin, 664, Shafter, 774, Stratford, 700, Madera two, 1126, Lindcove, 833, Porterville, 1101.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:01 am  Sunset: 5:25 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:21

Yesterday’s Weather:

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  67 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  68 /  40 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  67 /  36 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  69 /  42 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  65 /  40 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1555 /  67 /  40 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  68 /  38 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  66 /  46 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  67 /  42 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    3.99    53   12.49   167     7.47    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    3.55    53   10.55   158     6.69    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.29    37    9.84   161     6.12    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    1.55    25    9.24   150     6.18    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.64    29   10.06   178     5.66    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.78    34    6.24   121     5.17    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.10    35    5.79   186     3.12     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.20     7    5.59   209     2.67     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    2.51    39    9.86   151     6.51    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    2.30    36   10.59   165     6.41    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.02    30   10.64   156     6.80    13.95

 

Next Report: Thursday, February 1 pm