March 15, 2018
Summary: We are ending up with a cool but sunny spring day as we are currently sandwiched between the exiting storm system and a low pressure system which has already spread light showers as far south as a Monterey/Merced line. Showers will continue to spread slowly southward during the course of the night, possibly not reaching Kern County until sunrise or so. This system will also be a slow mover, so it will have ample opportunity to move waves of energy in from the eastern Pacific. Each wave will be accompanied by showers and I wouldn’t rule out a few thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and evening.
The big trough will move inland Friday night and Saturday with sporadic activity continuing until probably Saturday afternoon. The precipitation should be over Saturday night with possible upslope showers over the foothills of Kern and Tulare Counties foothills through the evening. As this system pulls off to the east, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure will move overhead. In the meantime, a large low pressure system currently well off the northern California coast will gain strength and begin to approach the coast Tuesday.
Wednesday appears to be the target date for the beginning of another round of precipitation. This storm is large and if its placement is just right, strong gusty winds could occur Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Another system will kick it eastward by Thursday evening and could possibly bring another round of showers Friday, although that is not definitive at this time. Dry weather should return next weekend and last through the early part of the following week.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight with showers spreading slowly southward, mainly after midnight. Periods of showers Friday through Saturday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. A slight chance of showers Saturday night. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with rain becoming likely Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/59/38/59 | Reedley 44/60/39/58 | Dinuba 42/59/38/59 | |
| Porterville 41/61/38/60 | Lindsay 40/60/38/60 | Delano 44/61/39/60 | |
| Bakersfield 43/62/41/58 | Arvin 43/62/42/58 | Taft 45/61/44/59 | |
| Lamont 43/61/41/60 | Pixley 42/60/38/58 | Tulare 41/59/37/59 | |
| Woodlake 41/59/39/59 | Hanford 41/59/38/58 | Orosi 41/61/38/58 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the south to southeast through Friday at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County northward. Winds later Friday night and Saturday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. winds Sunday will be generally less than 12 MPH.
Rain: Even though we are enjoying a cool but sunny afternoon, rain is not far away. Already this afternoon, showers have worked their way southward to near Monterey along the coast and Merced County inland. The low pressure system itself is centered off the Oregon coast. The bottom sector of this storm will sag slowly southward tonight and Friday and as it does, precipitation will spread southward, as well. There is a reasonably good chance of showers anytime from later tonight through Saturday afternoon. As colder air begins to move in aloft, we may see enough dynamics for a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and possibly even Saturday afternoon. Like most spring thunderstorms, they would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Dry weather will return Saturday night and last through what appears to be Tuesday of next week. A Pacific storm which is becoming quite large is already several hundred miles off the northern California coast and is not moving much. Its influence will begin to be felt Wednesday as the low itself approaches the northern California coast. This is a milder system which may have an atmospheric river of air moving in from the southwest. Anyone who remembers last winter knows what that is. It could produce significant precipitation throughout the region with the rain possibly continuing through Friday.
Frost: The air mass which will swing in behind the two day storm that will begin tomorrow is quite cold. Where skies remain clear on Sunday and Monday mornings, widespread low to mid 30s are likely with a chance of upper 20s in the coldest river bottom and other low spots. Models seem to place the coldest air overhead Sunday morning, but even on Monday the chance of at least localized frost will exist as the atmosphere will be stable and skies should be relatively clear. This will be the last chance of frost for a while as rapid warming will occur Monday through the end of the week as warm, subtropical air floods in from the southwest, driving daytime temperatures into the 70s.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next report: Friday, March 16