March 17, 2018
Summary: Numerous showers have developed over the Coast Range during the past few hours and are now spilling into the west side of the San Joaquin Valley from northwest Kern County to western Merced County. These showers will slowly track across the valley for the remainder of the afternoon and at least into the early evening hours. There are also areas of sunshine out there which may contribute to the destabilization of the atmosphere for a chance of isolated thunderstorms into the early evening hours.
Upper level high pressure will begin to work its way in from the eastern Pacific, resulting in a dry period of time from later tonight through Monday night. The freezing level over Oakland this morning was down to 3,700 feet and at Vandenberg 4,400 feet. There is a chance of localized frost tonight, although I believe most locations will be at or above freezing with the typical low spots dropping to 32 or a bit colder for short durations.
Clouds will begin to increase late Monday night from a massive low pressure system located 700 miles off the northern California coast. On paper, anyway, this storm has more potential for a heavy rain event from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Models continue to indicate there will be an atmospheric river of air moving into the bottom side of this storm from the southwest. This river of air will be filled with abundant tropical moisture. When it combines with colder air from the Gulf of Alaska, it’s the proper recipe for a major event.
Snow levels will be very high initially then will begin to come down a bit once we get into late Thursday and Thursday night. Weak high pressure will fill in from the west Friday through Saturday, however a fairly weak and cold low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California Sunday then will slide into the Great Basin Monday. This will give the likelihood of showers to our north, but for now we’ll keep the forecast dry for our neck of the woods and watch models for any changes.
Next week continues to appear dry as a big ridge builds over and off the west coast. Even the two week model is indicating we’ll be under strong high pressure, shunting the storm track to our north for dry weather with near to marginally above average temperatures.
Forecast: Scattered showers with possible isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon through the evening. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Mostly to partly cloudy in Kern County Sunday morning. Becoming mostly clear throughout the region Sunday afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness by late Monday night with a chance of rain Tuesday morning. Rain becoming likely Tuesday afternoon, possibly locally heavy at times. Rain at times Tuesday night through Thursday evening, possibly locally heavy at times. Partly cloudy Friday and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/61/34/67 | Reedley 34/62/37/69 | Dinuba 31/61/35/68 | |
| Porterville 33/62/35/70 | Lindsay 32/62/34/69 | Delano 35/63/37/70 | |
| Bakersfield 39/63/40/70 | Arvin 37/63/37/70 | Taft 42/63/42/70 | |
| Lamont 37/63/38/70 | Pixley 33/62/35/68 | Tulare 32/62/36/69 | |
| Woodlake 33/62/35/68 | Hanford 34/62/36/69 | Orosi 32/62/36/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest through this evening at 5 to 15 MPH, diminishing to no m ore than 10 MPH overnight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday through Monday evening will be generally less than 12 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. On Tuesday, winds will begin to increase out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Wednesday with stronger gusts.
Rain: Showers have been developing over the Coast Range from northwest Kern County through San Benito County. These showers are now spilling into the west side of the valley and should make it through the east side of the valley this afternoon before moving over the Sierra Nevada later this evening. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon through th evening hours. All activity should wind down by later this evening. Dry weather will prevail Sunday through Monday night. All the indicators on medium range models are very bullish on a major weather event from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening. The combination of cold air driving southward along the back side of this storm and an atmospheric river of air which will bring in plenty of tropical juice will lead to a major weather event. The heaviest precipitation will fall from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Precipitation in the mountains could be tremendously heavy if this storm plays out the way it appears on paper. As much as six inches of rain is possible in the foothills and mountains north of Kern County with possibly an inch or two on the valley, mainly on the east side from roughly Porterville northward. Showers will still be abundant Thursday, tapering off Thursday night with dry weather over the weekend and, if models hold, through the following week.
Frost: It still appears low to mid 30s are likely in many areas with the typical cold, low lying spots dipping below freezing and a slight chance of a brief upper 20s event in low lying river bottoms. The normally colder frost stations will generally range from 31 to 36. Some moderation will occur Monday morning as the atmosphere begins to moderate. It’s possible a few locations could dip into the lower 30s Monday morning, but I’m not looking for any upper 20s. cloud cover will rapidly increase Tuesday, leading to significant amounts of rain Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening with well above freezing temperatures. For now, there’s nothing to suggest a pattern that would result in spring frost.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
30 |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Sunday, March 18