April 2, 2018
Summary: Temperatures marginally came down on Easter Sunday afternoon, but nevertheless, were in the lower 80s at most locations. A weak area of low pressure is moving through. It doesn’t have much form, but it will bump temperatures a bit lower again today and Tuesday. Upper level high pressure will rebound at midweek with temperatures rising to near 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. Generally, a west to east flow in the upper atmosphere will prevail through the week. This will keep the pattern aloft relatively mild.
It’s appearing more and more interesting that we could have a strong low develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, eventually developing an atmospheric river of air into the storm from the southwest. As the low moves into central California later Friday night and Saturday, the potential for heavy amounts of precipitation in some areas will begin. For the past several days, models have been pointing to the development of this AR, but this morning’s models show the system digging further south than had been previously shown. This far out, timing and intensity are not as certain as they could be, but right now it looks like the south valley could pick up a quarter of an inch and up to an inch in Fresno and Madera Counties. Snow levels with this storm could initially be as high as 10,000 feet. With heavy precipitation drowning the snow pack, heavy run off and flooding could be expected. This will be a progressive system, meaning it will be to our east by early Sunday with a return to dry weather Sunday and probably lasting through the middle of next week. I hedge a bit because models are hinting at a new low for northern California about a week from tomorrow.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night with occasional high clouds. Partly cloudy Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon through Friday night with a small chance of showers after midnight Friday. Periods of rain likely Saturday and Saturday night, possibly locally heavy north of Kern County. A chance of showers early Sunday. Becoming partly cloudy later Sunday through Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 79/47/78/48/80 | Reedley 79/47/79/49/81 | Dinuba 78/46/78/48/79 | |
| Porterville 79/46/78/48/80 | Lindsay 79/47/79/48/81 | Delano 80/48/78/51/81 | |
| Bakersfield 80/54/78/55/82 | Arvin 79/51/79/51/82 | Taft 80/55/80/56/82 | |
| Lamont 80/51/79/52/82 | Pixley 80/48/79/49/81 | Tulare 78/46/78/48/79 | |
| Woodlake 79/46/78/48/80 | Hanford 80/47/78/48/80 | Orosi 79/47/78/48/81 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 49/78 |
Friday
PM showers possible 56/75 |
Saturday
Periods of rain 59/74 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 46/71 |
Monday
Mostly clear 44/73 |
Two Week Outlook: April 9 through April 15: This model shows a possible period of dry weather that may last a while as a zone of relatively flat high pressure build in from the west. This would result in at least marginally above average temperatures with a low chance of precipitation.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH later mornings and afternoons and less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions nights and early mornings through Thursday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue into early Friday. By Friday evening, the chance of showers from Fresno northward will begin to pick up with rain, possibly locally heavy, late Friday night through Saturday night and even a chance of lingering showers for a time Sunday morning. An impressive Pacific storm will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest on Friday. It will move into northern and central California Friday and Saturday. An atmospheric river of air is projected to develop in the subtropics, moving into the southwestern flank of the low. Typically, these ARs have a great deal of subtropical moisture associated with them and can produce significant amounts of precipitation in the mountains and even on the valley floor, mainly north of Kern County. We’re still more than four days out, so there are challenges regarding timing and intensity. With each set of model runs the potential for this storm should become more clear. After the pattern turns dry again, another much weaker system may affect northern California about Tuesday of next week but the impact on central California looks to be minimal.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/85% Bakersfield: 30%/75%
Actual Humidity March 31, 2018: Delano, 83%/22%, Porterville, 92%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 31, 2018: Stratford 1.33, Parlier 1.10, Blackwell 1.24 Lindcove 1.10, Arvin 1.24, Orange Cove 1.18, Porterville 1.16, Delano 117, Madera Two 1.07. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 65, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 61
Record Temperatures: 87/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 10 +6 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 67.0 -9.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.67. Month to Date: 4.19
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.73, or -1.87, Month to Date: 2.41
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 am Sunset: 7:23 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:36
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 80 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 7.37 60 19.82 162 12.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.78 52 15.30 137 11.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 54 14.64 139 10.57 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.51 64 13.70 135 10.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.09 62 13.66 140 9.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.41 52 9.62 112 8.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.73 67 7.41 132 5.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.82 20 7.89 194 4.06 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.29 47 15.52 137 11.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.42 82 15.01 130 11.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.60 45 16.92 136 12.48 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, April 3