October 9, 2017
Summary: A low pressure system which has moved through the Great Basin is now centered over Colorado. The counterclockwise flow around this low is creating strong Santa Ana winds in southern California. Models indicate that there is a good chance these winds will blow down slope off the Tehachapi Mountains and extreme southern Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. These winds may very well reach areas such as Bakersfield and possibly even a bit further north. Winds of 50 to 60 MPH are possible near the base of the mountains, mainly this afternoon and tonight. From Delano northward, winds will generally be near 10 MPH.
This will also allow a warming trend to set up with temperatures rising to above seasonal average through Tuesday. Another radical change will begin Tuesday afternoon and evening, though, as a fairly strong but generally dry trough of low pressure moves into northern and central California. This will reverse the surface winds to on shore with cooler temperatures beginning Wednesday. By Thursday a dry cold front will move through, lowering temperatures more. It appears temperatures well down into the 70s will develop with colder locations on the valley floor moving into the upper 30s to lower 40s overnight, especially Friday and Saturday.
Upper level high pressure will begin to move in from the west by late Sunday for a slow warming trend Monday of next week. As far as precipitation is concerned, I don’t see any for at least the next week and possibly 10 days although the two week model is indicating a strong low may affect the area. It’s simply too far out at this point for me to suggest precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Thursday. Mostly clear skies will continue Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 84/45/85/46/82 | Reedley 84/45/85/46/81 | Dinuba 83/44/84/45/81 | |
| Porterville 86/45/85/44/82 | Lindsay 84/43/85/45/82 | Delano 86/51/85/49/82 | |
| Bakersfield 89/57/87/55/83 | Arvin 89/51/85/49/83 | Taft 87/61/87/57/83 | |
| Lamont 88/53/87/54/83 | Pixley 85/46/85/45/81 | Tulare 83/44/85/44/81 | |
| Woodlake 85/46/85/45/82 | Hanford 84/45/85/45/83 | Orosi 84/45/85/44/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 43/77 |
Friday
Mostly clear 42/76 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/76 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 44/79 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 16 through October 27: This model indicates a trough of low pressure will dominate much of the western United States with below average temperatures. This model also indicates the strong possibility of showers over northern California spreading as far south as Fresno County. I don’t want to add that to the forecast just yet, but it does look pretty on maps. At the very least, it will result in a continuation of autumn-like conditions.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds from Delano northward will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday. South of that line, winds will pick up out of the east/southeast this afternoon and tonight to 50 MPH at the base of the Tehachapi Mountains and with gusts as strong as 30 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. Winds will subside Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes with even Kern County observing winds of less than 10 MPH Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds Thursday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 30s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 15%/90% Bakersfield, 15%/45%
Actual Humidity October 7, 2017: Delano, 81%/19%, Porterville, 89%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 7, 2017: Stratford 1.34, Parlier 1.02, Blackwell 1.30, Lindcove 1.09, Arvin 1.27, Orange Cove 1.20, Porterville 1.04, Delano 1.10., Madera Two 1.05 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 69, Blackwell 73, Lindcove 69, Arvin 76, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 73, Delano 67, Madera Two 72
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.3 -4.7
Record Temperatures: 99/35. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2147, +532 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 7, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.08. Month to Date: .00
Since October 7, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.03, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 am Sunset: 6:33 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:33
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 82 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
24 hours Season % Last year % Average Ave for year
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.08 67 0.12 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.09 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.10 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.08 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, August 10