October 11, 2017
Summary: A deep low pressure system is centered over Washington State this morning with a trough extending southward into northern California. The only evidence of this low is a few high clouds moving overhead from time to time. The marine layer which yesterday was roughly 500 feet is more than 4,000 feet this morning and is gushing into the valley. Satellite imagery shows coastal fog and low clouds moving into the last valley separating the Coast Range from the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. Most locations were in the upper 80s to the lower 90s yesterday but temperatures will struggle to reach 80 degrees today. As a dry cold front moves through Thursday, additional cooling is expected as readings drop like a rock into the low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday.
Another low will dive into the Great Basin Friday then will move eastward with a surface high following into the Great Basin Friday night and Saturday. This again will set up a Santa Ana wind configuration as an off shore flow develops. That, combined with weak high pressure overhead, will set up a slow warming trend. Also of interest, temperatures, at least in the lower locations, may drop well down into the 30s, especially Friday morning and possibly Saturday morning. Temperatures will moderate over the weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Saturday. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 78/42/74/37/75 | Reedley 79/42/74/38/75 | Dinuba 77/40/74/36/74 | |
| Porterville 79/42/75/37/75 | Lindsay 80/41/74/36/74 | Delano 80/44/75/40/76 | |
| Bakersfield 81/50/73/45/74 | Arvin 81/47/75/40/76 | Taft 79/53/74/47/74 | |
| Lamont 81/48/74/45/74 | Pixley 80/44/75/39/75 | Tulare 78/40/74/37/76 | |
| Woodlake 80/42/75/37/75 | Hanford 79/41/74/37/76 | Orosi 79/43/75/36/75 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 43/78 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 45/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 46/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/84 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 18 through October 29: This model indicates a trough of low pressure will dominate much of the western United States with below average temperatures. This model also indicates the strong possibility of showers over northern California spreading as far south as Fresno County. I don’t want to add that to the forecast just yet, but it does look pretty on maps. At the very least, it will result in a continuation of autumn-like conditions.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: winds will be mainly out of the northwest today and tonight at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH. Along the west side, local gusts to 30 MPH cannot be ruled out. Winds will back off and average 5 to 10 MPH Thursday through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 25%/90% Bakersfield, 20%/55%
Actual Humidity October 9, 2017: Delano, 79%/18%, Porterville, 93%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 9, 2017: Stratford 1.26, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell 1.26, Lindcove 1.06, Arvin 1.46, Orange Cove 1.18, Porterville 1.01, Delano 1.07, Madera Two 1.00 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 69, Blackwell 72, Lindcove 69, Arvin 75, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 72, Delano 66, Madera Two 71
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.7 -4.0
Record Temperatures: 99/42. Average Temperatures: 82/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2148, +525 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 9, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.11. Month to Date: .00
Since October 9, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.05, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 6:27 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:31
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 91 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 91 / 63 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 86 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 87 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 85 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.08 53 0.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.06 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.05 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.09 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.13 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.11 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, October 12