January 6, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar at this hour is indicating there’s a lot of shower activity over Mariposa and Madera Counties and parts of Fresno County with most precipitation falling in the foothills and mountains. During the predawn hours, there were some light showers in the south valley but they’ve come to an end. Most of the precipitation is along a cold front which is quickly moving southeast through the valley. That will be our best chance at precipitation as only a narrow strip of rain is currently occurring.
However, there is a large mass of subtropical moisture moving in from the southwest so we’ll keep a small chance of showers in the forecast for this afternoon.
A weak ridge of high pressure will fill in tonight through Sunday night. beginning Monday, two strong low pressure systems will impact central California. The first low will move inland Monday and Monday night with plenty of subtropical moisture and strong jet stream dynamics. This will produce rain, possibly heavy at times, mostly in the eastern portion of the valley north of Kern County. By Tuesday, a second much cooler low and its associated cold front will move through northern and central California. Models indicate there’s plenty of dynamics with this system, so isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Also, a sharp difference in pressure will generate gusty winds along the west side with possibly very strong winds in the extreme south valley due to downsloping off the Tehachapi Mountains.
By Tuesday night, the precipitation will turn more showery with a small chance of showers lasting into Wednesday morning. Dry weather will return Wednesday afternoon and by Thursday a ridge of high pressure will be filling in from the west then will build northward into Oregon. For the remainder of the week, and well into the following week, upper level high pressure determines that we will be dry.
Forecast: Cloudy today with a chance of showers, especially this morning. Mostly cloudy tonight. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday through Sunday night. increasing cloudiness Monday with rain becoming likely, especially during the afternoon. Rain likely Monday night with periods of rain Tuesday and a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers Tuesday night with a small chance of showers lasting into Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, except remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/52/61/52/60 | Reedley 63/50/62/48/61 | Dinuba 62/52/62/50/60 | |
| Porterville 63/51/63/48/61 | Lindsay 62/50/62/47/60 | Delano 62/51/63/48/62 | |
| Bakersfield 63/53/63/50/64 | Arvin 64/51/63/49/61 | Taft 63/53/63/52/63 | |
| Lamont 62/49/63/48/63 | Pixley 62/51/61/47/61 | Tulare 61/48/61/45/60 | |
| Woodlake 62/50/61/47/60 | Hanford 62/50/61/46/61 | Orosi 63/48/62/46/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Rain likely 52/57 |
Wednesday
AM showers possible 38/59 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 40/61 |
Friday
Mostly clear 38/64 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 41/64 |
Two Week Outlook: January 13 through January 19: This model indicates well above average temperatures will continue. It also indicates that there is a better than even chance of rain for northern and possibly central California.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: winds will generally be out of the southeast this morning at 5 to 15 MPH at times then will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH this afternoon. Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH Sunday through Sunday evening. Winds will increase Monday out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 MPH but with possible gusts to 35 MPH along the west side. There is a chance of a high wind event in the extreme south valley as pressure differences tighten up with possibly 50 plus MPH winds at places like the bottom of the Grapevine and to a lesser extent elsewhere in the extreme south valley. These winds will continue Monday night and early Tuesday then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH by Tuesday afternoon with stronger gusts. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 MPH will continue Wednesday, diminishing Wednesday night.
Rain: Short term, there is a chance of light showers, mainly this morning, from a weak cold front which is currently moving through Merced and Mariposa Counties. Light showers will accompany the front as it moves southward with a chance of showers later this morning. I want to keep a minimal chance of showers in the forecast for this afternoon as a mass of subtropical cloudiness moves in. dry weather will return tonight through Sunday night then the real action will begin on Monday.
A subtropical low will move through central California primarily Monday afternoon, bringing widespread rain. The subtropical moisture will continue to move overhead Monday night with widespread generally light rain, possibly heavy at times.
A colder low and its associated front will move through Tuesday. Models indicate there may be enough dynamics to the atmosphere for isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. The rain will taper off into showers Tuesday night, possibly lasting into early Wednesday morning. Dry conditions will prevail from Wednesday afternoon on.
As far as amounts go, it’s possible as much as an inch of rain could accumulate north of Kern County with lesser amounts on the west side and in Kern County. In Kern County, a quarter to a third of an inch is possible
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days and possibly longer.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Mid to upper 50s.
Humidity, Visalia, 80%/100% Bakersfield, 75%/100%
Actual Humidity January 4, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/66%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0%, Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 0%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 4, 2018: Stratford .33, Parlier .29, Blackwell, .40 Lindcove .33, Arvin .43, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .29, Delano .NA., Madera Two .30. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 51, Delano NA, Madera Two 51
7.2
Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 921, -295 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .48 season. or -3.28. Month to Date: .07
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -2.11, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 525, Parlier, 560, Arvin, 497, Shafter, 627, Stratford, 568, Madera two, 731, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 546, Porterville, 713. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 72 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 76 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 69 / 67 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON T 1.16 23 7.31 142 5.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.33 30 5.70 128 4.46 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.35 33 5.12 126 4.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.55 13 4.61 107 4.29 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.48 13 5.20 136 3.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.80 22 3.16 87 3.62 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 3 3.29 153 2.15 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 9 1.32 72 1.84 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 1.07 25 5.70 133 4.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.37 9 4.33 106 4.08 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.43 10 5.36 120 4.47 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, January 6/pm