January 8, 2018
Summary: There is one thing for sure, and that is the fact that we are under a tremendously large rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County. From Merced northward, heavy amounts of rain have been occurring. Then you look to the south, and heavy rain is also occurring in Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange Counties. As this moisture moves from southwest to northeast, the moisture simply dries up, leaving only light showers all the way up into Fresno County.
The air mass is also extremely warm with the freezing level over Oakland is at 9,500 feet and 10,000 feet at Vandenberg. Where is the cold air you say? Medford, Oregon has a freezing level of 2,100 feet.
Satellite and radar are extremely telling. Abundant tropical moisture continues to move into California from the southwest ahead of the first low pressure system which will move into southern California Tuesday. In the meantime, the second low will approach the San Francisco Bay area tonight and begin to really tighten up pressure differences between northern California and the Desert Southwest. At this hour, that has not yet occurred with the exception of the extreme south valley where winds at the base of the Tehachapi Mountains are picking up. Currently, winds at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine are out of the south at 17, gusting to 46 MPH. That will only increase tonight as the low approaches the coast with winds gusts to near 75 MPH and possible 45 MPH gusts as far north as Bakersfield. Along the west side, winds will also dramatically increase, probably averaging in the 20 to 40 MPH range with stronger gusts at times. The east side of the valley will observe winds out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
A strong cold front will be moving inland late tonight and early Tuesday with heavy rain which will taper off into showers later Tuesdays morning and afternoon. A small chance of thunderstorms exists accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. Showers will begin to taper off Tuesday night and will come to a complete halt by sunrise Wednesday.
Wednesday will be dry with plenty of residual cloud cover, especially along the east side and in Kern County due to upsloping. Cloudiness will no doubt last through Thursday morning before mostly clear skies arrive Thursday afternoon through Monday. The main challenge from Thursday on will be increasing amounts of night and morning fog. It’s possible we may head into a fog regime where only partial clearing occurs during the afternoons. All the models continue to point to strong upper level high pressure over the west for much of next week, as well.
Forecast: Occasional rain through this evening. Rain, locally heavy at times, later tonight through early Tuesday. The rain will break off into showers by mid morning, lasting into the evening hours. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. Showers will continue Tuesday night but will end by sunrise Wednesday. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday with residual cloud cover along the east side and in Kern County through Thursday morning. Becoming mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Friday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog. Widespread fog and low clouds Saturday through Monday with some afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/61/45/61 | Reedley 54/62/44/61 | Dinuba 54/61/44/60 | |
| Porterville 55/63/43/61 | Lindsay 54/63/44/61 | Delano 56/63/45/60 | |
| Bakersfield 58/64/48/59 | Arvin 57/64/46/60 | Taft 56/65/46/60 | |
| Lamont 56/65/46/59 | Pixley 55/62/44/61 | Tulare 54/62/43/60 | |
| Woodlake 54/62/44/60 | Hanford 55/62/44/60 | Orosi 54/61/42/60 | |
Winds: Winds so far this afternoon have been generally less than 20 MPH with the exception of the extreme south valley where winds are gusting to 46 MPH at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine. As the second, colder low approaches the coast tonight, winds will pick up to 15 to 35 MPH along the west side with gusts to 45 MPH. On the east side north of Kern County, winds out of the southeast can be expected at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. In Kern County, wind gusts to 45 MPH are possible as far north as Bakersfield. Generally speaking, winds will get stronger the closer you get to the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds will increase out of the south/southeast to 30 to 40 MPH with gusts to near 75 possible near the base of the Tehachapis. Winds will quickly decrease Tuesday morning as the main low moves inland then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH later Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, decreasing to 10 to 15 MPH later Tuesday night and 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally light.
Rain: rainfall amounts are as follows: Fresno .28, Madera .16, Orange Cove .36, Parlier .27, Belridge .17, Blackwell .22, Hanford .27, Arvin .08, Bakersfield .05, Lindcove .14, Porterville .09, Stratford .07, Visalia .19. The valley, or at least south of Merced, so far with this event has been cheated, pretty much as expected. A huge rain shadow has developed from western Fresno County southward to Kern. Just light amounts of showers are occurring over most of the valley at this hour. The light showers will be overtaken by widespread rain later this evening through early Tuesday as the cold front marches in. Tuesday itself will be mainly showery with a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon with localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will continue Tuesday night but will taper off and end by sunrise Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail Wednesday through Monday and well beyond.
Frost Information: Above freezing conditions will continue indefinitely
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next Report: Tuesday morning, January 9