January 14, 2018
We will be out of the office this afternoon. Reports will resume Monday morning. Thank you.
Summary: All of the regularly reporting weather stations from Madera southward to Porterville are reporting one-half mile visibility while Bakersfield is reporting one mile under a low overcast. Satellite imagery this morning is showing low clouds and fog covering the San Joaquin Valley up through the lower Sacramento Valley. Even some light drizzle has occurred in some locations.
A sharp ridge of upper level high pressure extends from southern Washington southward to northwest Mexico. A strong warm air inversion will remain over the valley through Monday, trapping abundant moisture from about the lower 1,500 feet of the atmosphere while temperatures in the foothills and the coastal sections will move into the upper 60s to even the lower 70s. there are high, thin clouds overrunning the high which are visible from the mountains and the coast but, of course, not from the valley floor.
The pattern will begin to change Monday night as a low pressure system moves into northern California. This morning’s models track this system a bit further north than previous models so most of the light precipitation will occur from Fresno County and points north with a small chance further south. This system won’t hang around very long and may very well be over by midday Tuesday then a weak ridge of upper level high pressure will quickly fill in behind the exiting low for dry weather with areas of morning fog Wednesday and Thursday.
The storm system we’ve been talking about that’s due Thursday and Friday looks more impressive on this morning’s models and has a greater potential of resulting in a significant winter storm event. The origins of this system are from the Gulf of Alaska, so right along the back side of this storm snow levels may drop to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Potentially heavy amounts of snow could fall over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Models also seem to be trending on a third system arriving about Sunday or Monday of next week which could be at least a Triple A storm, also of cold origins.
We will be out of the office this afternoon. Reports will resume Monday morning. Thank you.
Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds through Monday with a chance of a brief afternoon clearing, mainly close to the foothills on either side of the valley. Local areas of drizzle are possible during the night and morning hours. Increasing higher clouds Monday night. a chance of light showers from mainly fresno County northward late Monday night and Tuesday morning. M ostly to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with areas of morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with rain becoming likely late Thursday night and at times through Friday night. mostly to partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. increasing cloudiness again Sunday with a chance of rain Sunday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/48/51/49/53 | Reedley 50/47/51/47/61 | Dinuba 50/47/52/47/61 | |
| Porterville 53/48/52/48/63 | Lindsay 53/49/52/47/62 | Delano 51/49/51/48/63 | |
| Bakersfield 53/50/53/49/64 | Arvin 56/48/56/47/65 | Taft 57/51/58/51/65 | |
| Lamont 52/49/52/48/65 | Pixley 52/48/52/49/62 | Tulare 51/48/51/48/61 | |
| Woodlake 52/49/52/49/62 | Hanford 51/48/51/47/63 | Orosi 52/48/52/47/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Morning fog/partly cloudy 47/64 |
Thursday
Morning fog/partly cloudy 43/64 |
Friday
Rain likely 44/54 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 34/53 |
Sunday
PM rain possible 35/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: This model shows the storm track potentially moving into California from the Gulf of Alaska. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be below average with a reasonable chance of rain.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH through Monday evening with periods of near calm conditions. Winds later Monday night and Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, diminishing Tuesday afternoon.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through Monday evening. A weak weather system will move through northern California late Monday night and Tuesday morning with the southern flank of the low moving through central California. Models track this system a bit further north than they earlier had so the bulk of the light showers will be from Fresno County north. expect dry weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Late Thursday night through Friday night, what now appears to be a strong winter storm will move through with its cold air from the Gulf of Alaska. This could possibly be a significant rain event for the valley and a heavy snow event for the Sierra. Most if not all the action should be over by Saturday morning with dry weather through Sunday. However, a new trend is developing on models. It looks like another cold system will move in late Sunday night and Monday. We shall keep you posted.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through at least Friday night. a significant and cold storm event will occur late Thursday night and Friday. the air behind a cold front is much colder with snow down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the mountains. Currently, it appears most locations will range in the upper 20s to the mid 30s Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning, however it’s also possible a significant amount of upslope clouds will form against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains, in which case all locations will be above freezing. This will be a short window for frost to occur as it now appears we may see another colder type storm about Sunday night or Monday.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity, Visalia, 80%/100% Bakersfield, 75%/100%
Actual Humidity January 12, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/69%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 0%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 12, 2018: Stratford .22, Parlier .22, Blackwell, .28 Lindcove .24, Arvin .27, Orange Cove .24, Porterville .20, Delano .NA., Madera Two 15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 56, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 57, Delano NA, Madera Two 55
7.2
Record Temperatures: 70/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 989, -392 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 54.5 +10.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.23 season. or -3.11. Month to Date: .82
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .88, or -1.52, Month to Date: .82
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 536, Parlier, 575, Arvin, 500, Shafter, 632, Stratford, 575, Madera two, 821, Alpaugh, NA, Lindcove, 548, Porterville, 759. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 5:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 50 / 48 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 56 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 49 / 45 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 53 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.52 60 10.14 173 5.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.25 63 8.31 162 5.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.99 41 8.42 172 4.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.31 26 7.06 140 5.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.23 28 8.42 191 4.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.68 39 5.04 117 4.32 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.88 36 4.65 191 2.44 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 9 4.06 189 2.15 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.13 43 7.60 153 4.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES M 2.16 45 7.66 159 4.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 38 8.29 160 5.17 13.95
Next Report: Monday, January 15/am