January 29, 2018
Summary: Considerable high clouds are streaming overhead from the west/northwest well ahead of a cold front. That cold front extends from a low pressure system way up in the Gulf of Alaska. This front will move southeastward into northern California tonight and early Tuesday and then will be eaten alive by upper level high pressure. Nevertheless, it may have some effect on temperatures, depending on the density of cloud cover, especially during the overnight hours.
The other main feature is surface high pressure over the Great Basin which will keep the off shore going through tonight. This will keep the Santa Ana winds cranked up over the higher elevations of Kern County and the usual hot spots in southern California, but will have no impact on central California.
Beginning Wednesday, the upper high will begin to build a ridge northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. This will be an effective shield from storms getting anywhere near California for at least the next week to ten days. The main impact on the valley during this period will be pockets of fog mainly up the center of the valley and hazy conditions as the air is trapped below a warm air inversion. For now, there’s nothing medium range suggesting a break in this pattern. The two week model is suggesting below average precipitation, in other words the chance of rain will be very low, and as you might expect, a continuation of above average temperatures.
Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine today. Partly cloudy tonight and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday with occasional high clouds and patchy morning fog. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/37/63/38/63 | Reedley 64/36/63/38/64 | Dinuba 62/37/63/38/63 | |
| Porterville 66/37/68/38/68 | Lindsay 65/36/67/38/66 | Delano 66/38/69/39/67 | |
| Bakersfield 68/42/70/44/67 | Arvin 69/38/71/40/68 | Taft 67/46/71/47/67 | |
| Lamont 68/40/70/41/67 | Pixley 65/37/67/38/65 | Tulare 63/36/64/39/63 | |
| Woodlake 65/36/63/38/64 | Hanford 64/37/65/38/64 | Orosi 64/37/65/38/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 40/68 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 41/68 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 41/69 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 43/70 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 42/70 |
Two Week Outlook: February 5 through February11: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with near calm conditions nights and mornings.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the next week and possibly ten days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week. Strong upper level high pressure will allow overnight lows to moderate. The somewhat higher sun angle we’re enjoying now allows more solar heat to reach the valley floor, thus it’s simply easier for air masses which would have remained consistent a few weeks ago to now warm at the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia, 60%/100% Bakersfield, 50/90%
Actual Humidity January 27, 2018: Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days January 27, 2018: Stratford .44, Parlier .43, Blackwell, .NA Lindcove .42, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .50, Porterville .40, Delano .37., Madera Two .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 49, Delano 48, Madera Two 50
7.2
Record Temperatures: 78/23. Average Temperatures: 57/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1237, -435 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for January so far, 51.1 +6.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -3.73. Month to Date: 1.23
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -1.86, Month to Date: 1.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 648, Parlier, 678, Arvin, 640, Shafter, 747, Stratford, 669, Madera two, 1085, Lindcove, 801, Porterville, 1058. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 5:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 60 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 56 12.49 174 7.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 55 10.55 164 6.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 38 9.84 165 5.96 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 26 9.24 153 6.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 30 10.06 185 5.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 35 6.24 124 5.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 37 5.79 194 2.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 8 5.59 216 2.59 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 40 9.86 158 6.24 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 38 10.59 173 6.13 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 31 10.64 164 6.50 13.95
Next Report: Monday afternoon, January 29