February 6, 2018
Summary: Another carbon copy day is on tap as strong upper level high pressure anchored just off shore continues to completely dominate the pattern. Daytime highs for the remainder of the work week will continue to be in the 70s. The high will actually reach its pinnacle Thursday when it’s not out of the question that a few locations may top the 80 degree mark, mainly in Kern County. As usual, under that big cap over the valley floor, very hazy conditions will continue along with pockets of fog during the late night and early morning hours, mainly north of Kern County.
The outlook for this weekend and into next week is up in the air, so to speak. Some models show the blocking ridge continuing with temperatures remaining in the 70s, but two models have been consistent in showing a deep but dry low pressure system moving from western Canada down through western Nevada then into southern California Sunday. There may be enough available moisture for light snow showers over the high Sierra and even a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers over the valley floor, mainly Saturday night and Sunday. For now, it appears the vast majority of locations will remain dry.
At the surface, a strong surface low will develop over southern Nevada, generating a strong off shore flow. With the pool of cold air moving over the area this weekend, temperatures may drop down to seasonal values by Sunday. This would also produce a much drier air mass at the surface, lowering dew points which will affect overnight low temperatures. This is discussed below.
Next week appears dry as that blocking ridge off shore continues. A system will dive into the Great Basin about Tuesday, but models this morning show it moving southward further east and not impacting our region.
Forecast: Clear and hazy through Friday night with patchy night and early morning fog, mainly up the center of the valley north of Kern County. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. mostly to partly cloudy Sunday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers. Partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/42/74/43/76 | Reedley 72/41/74/43/75 | Dinuba 71/41/74/43/75 | |
| Porterville 73/42/76/43/77 | Lindsay 73/42/76/43/77 | Delano 73/44/77/44/77 | |
| Bakersfield 73/47/78/49/79 | Arvin 73/44/78/45/78 | Taft 72/52/77/53/78 | |
| Lamont 73/46/78/46/78 | Pixley 74/43/77/44/77 | Tulare 71/42/74/43/75 | |
| Woodlake 73/42/75/43/76 | Hanford 73/42/75/44/76 | Orosi 72/41/73/43/76 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 44/71 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 45/62 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 37/59 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/63 |
Two Week Outlook: February 12 through February 18: This model now indicates a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure will be over and off the west coast. This pattern would drive the storm track well north. Temperatures would rise to marginally above average values, assuming the fog doesn’t take over, with very little chance of precipitation.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday morning with near calm conditions nights and mornings. Expect gusty north to northwest winds to develop, mainly along the west side, Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Saturday. A mostly dry but strong low pressure system will move southward just to our east Saturday. There is a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers, but the vast majority of locations will remain dry and its very possible the entire valley may remain dry. Nevertheless, I thought it prudent to add that slight chance in the forecast for late Saturday night and Sunday. After Sunday, the high will again take over with dry weather and, if models hold, all of next week will be dry.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Saturday morning. Models are in conflict trying to nail down a particular pattern for this weekend and early next week. The colder models show a deep but almost dry low pressure system racing southward just to the east of the Sierra Nevada Friday night and into southern California Saturday night and Sunday. This pattern would generate a strong off shore flow which would result in strong winds over the mountains and would contribute to lowering dew points over the valley floor. Theoretically, a much colder pool of air would move overhead during the second half of the weekend. Low to mid 30s would be possible Sunday through Tuesday mornings. We’ll have to study this closely as model differences don’t create much confidence. For now, though, I’m looking at this as a low to mid 30s event, but it could go a few degrees either way.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Humidity, Visalia, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 40/75%
Actual Humidity February 4, 2018: Delano, 90%/35%. Porterville, 96%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 4, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .42, Blackwell .50 Lindcove .49, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .55, Porterville .46, Delano .49., Madera Two .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 54, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 53, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
7.2
Record Temperatures: 76/24. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1327, -485 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 55.9 +7.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.32. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.19, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 709, Parlier, 737, Arvin, 683, Shafter, 804, Stratford, 730, Madera two, 1184, Lindcove, 867, Porterville, 1158. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 am Sunset: 5:30 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:31
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 74 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 75 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 50 12.93 162 7.96 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 50 11.01 154 7.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 35 10.62 164 6.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 24 9.80 151 6.47 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 27 10.36 172 6.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 33 6.79 126 5.41 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 33 5.93 178 3.34 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 5.63 200 2.81 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 2.51 36 10.26 147 6.97 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.30 33 11.63 169 6.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.02 28 11.19 153 7.32 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, February 6/pm