February 7, 2018
Summary: Wall to wall sunshine prevails over central California this afternoon. Visibilities are again ranging from 3 to 5 miles at most locations. Temperatures once again will top out in the low to mid 70s at most locations and ditto that through Friday.
A massive high pressure system aloft continues its dominance over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western United States. It’s actually ridged as far north now as southern Alaska, so the Pacific Ocean has been shut down for any potential storminess for our region. The freezing level remains quite high for this time of year, standing at 13,000 feet.
We have two low pressure systems that we will be contending with: one Saturday and one Monday night and early Tuesday. The Saturday system will simply move through as a weak wave of low pressure which will lower temperatures a bit but more than likely, daytime highs will remain at least marginally above average. There’s no precipitation possibility with this system but it may have enough energy to help lift the inversion above the valley and hopefully give us a break with the air quality. The second system still varies considerably from model to model. One model shows a low developing over western Canada then racing southward overland with possibly the development of a secondary low over northern California. This would actually provide a slight chance of showers, mainly over the mountains, late Monday through early Tuesday. But, the main impacts would be increased wind conditions and possibly even bringing temperatures down to seasonal values. What a concept!
After Tuesday, our old nemesis the blocking high will return for the next warming trend along with a continuation of dry weather. the new two week model is also very discouraging, indicating a strong high over the eastern Pacific/western U.S. with the main storm track moving from the Gulf of Alaska through the northern Rockies and into points eastward. Of course, temperatures would remain well above average.
Forecast: Clear and hazy through Friday night with patchy late night and early morning fog north of Kern County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night. partly cloudy Monday afternoon through early Tuesday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers, mainly near the foothills. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/73/42/74 | Reedley 42/74/42/73 | Dinuba 40/72/41/71 | |
| Porterville 41/75/41/73 | Lindsay 40/74/40/72 | Delano 43/75/43/73 | |
| Bakersfield 48/76/48/73 | Arvin 44/77/44/74 | Taft 54/75/53/73 | |
| Lamont 44/76/44/73 | Pixley 41/75/42/72 | Tulare 41/73/42/71 | |
| Woodlake 42/73/42/71 | Hanford 41/74/42/71 | Orosi 40/73/41/72 | |
Winds: Winds will be less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday night. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the far west side.
Rain: The only chance of precipitation I see in the near future would be late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. A low is still projected to form in western Canada then move rapidly southward into northern California by Sunday morning. It’s possible this system may actually form a secondary low which theoretically would move through here Monday night and early Tuesday. Models all along have portrayed this system as being quite dry and that has not changed. But, if a secondary low does develop it’s possible there may be enough cold air dynamics for showers over the Sierra Nevada and even a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers over the valley floor, mainly Monday night. dry weather will again return later Tuesday and well beyond. In fact, the new two week model indicates a high probability of dry weather lasting through the twenty second of February.
Frost Discussion: Cooler air will infiltrate central California Saturday as a weak wave of dry low pressure moves through. Even so, temperatures during the day are projected to remain somewhat above average with overnight lows being closer to seasonal values. Another colder low will move rapidly from north to south from western Canada and into northern California Monday morning. It will move over central California Monday afternoon and night. for now, it appears mid to upper 30s would be the coldest we would see behind this system, but there are too many model discrepancies to put that in concrete just yet. I cannot rule out a low to mid 30s situation, possibly Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. The only course of action will be to just tweak this forecast as we go along. But the good news is, because of this incredibly early bloom we’re experiencing, there’s no serious spring frost event in the near future, at least.
Next Report: Thursday morning, February 8