February 14, 2018
Summary: Heavy cloud cover based at roughly 10,000 feet moved in during the early morning hours, creating milder conditions than expected. The culprit is the same upper low which is now centered just southwest of the Channel Islands. Light showers are currently occurring from Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as far north as Lompoc. A few light echoes are also showing up over the Kern County mountains.
A new ripple of low pressure is moving southward and will arrive in central California Thursday. This will be the catalyst to push our current system eastward only to be replaced by that second trough which will bring locally gusty northwest winds Thursday and Thursday evening. It will also result in slightly cooler temperatures. By Friday, the off shore high will begin to build eastward, allowing temperatures to rise to near 70 in the warmest locations Saturday and Sunday. A new and cold low will drop rapidly southward, arriving in northern California Sunday night and central California on Monday. Models this morning show more of the energy from this system diving into the Great Basin rather than through California. However, some models still suggest a small chance of light showers over the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada late Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
The flow behind this system will either be out of the north or northwest which would mean low temperature forecasting will be difficult this far out, but it is certainly possible we could see at least local frost again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
In the longer term, models continue to suggest there’s only a small chance of rain later next week but we should see below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Clearing late this afternoon and tonight. Mostly clear Thursday through Sunday. Partly cloudy and cooler Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/32/62/31/65 | Reedley 65/33/62/31/65 | Dinuba 63/32/62/30/65 | |
| Porterville 65/33/62/31/66 | Lindsay 65/32/62/30/66 | Delano 64/34/62/32/65 | |
| Bakersfield 63/40/62/37/66 | Arvin 62/37/62/34/66 | Taft 65/39/61/37/66 | |
| Lamont 63/36/62/34/66 | Pixley 63/33/62/31/65 | Tulare 64/32/62/30/65 | |
| Woodlake 65/33/62/30/66 | Hanford 64/34/62/31/65 | Orosi 65/33/62/30/65S | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 35/68 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 37/66 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/59 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 31/58 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 30/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24: This model shows a considerable amount of cold air diving into the Pacific Northwest then into the interior west with some of this air spilling into California. This would favor at least marginally below average temperatures, but with a blocking ridge off shore precipitation continues to be doubtful.
February: This model doesn’t really grasp at any particular pattern through the month. In fact, central California, if you believe this model, should have temperatures close to seasonal values with near average precipitation, as well.
February, March, April: This model goes all the way through April and it is calling for a ridge of upper level high pressure off the southern California coast to be the most dominant, but not the only, feature during the spring months. If this model has any credence at all, temperatures should be marginally above average with below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH along the west side. Winds Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH along the west side. Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: Temperatures were milder last night than anticipated as that upper low off the southern California coast flung a significant band of cloud cover northward over the region. Tonight will be somewhat like five star draw poker as conditions will depend on the movement of the upper low currently projected to move quickly eastward. However, it is possible the low will keep us on the northern fringe of the circulation pattern which could result in another night that’s milder than expected. If skies begin to clear from the northwest, radiational cooling would occur, moving temperatures back down into the low to mid 30s with a chance of upper 20s s in those historic cold spots. Friday morning may actually be a tad colder as we receive another reinforcing shot of cold air behind a dry cold front which will move through the valley early Thursday morning. This may kick up some gusty winds along the west side of the valley and locally elsewhere, conceivably lowering dew points so we’ll keep a watchful eye on this. For now, it would seem coldest locations Friday morning could dip down to 28 to 30 degrees with many other locations in the low 30s. Saturday and Sunday could see coldest locations in the lower 30s, but mid 30s would be the average. Beginning Monday, yet another dry pool of cold air will slide southward into California. Models vary greatly on a particular solution. Some suggest most of the cold air will move southeastward just to the east of the Sierras. Others show the air mass moving farther west into California for some possible frost concerns as early as Tuesday morning, but more so Wednesday and beyond. Medium range models going out through the latter part of next week are indicating a relatively cold north to possibly northwest flow which would also have to closely be monitored.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 35%/100% Bakersfield, 40%/85%
Actual Humidity February 12, 2018: Delano, 84%/40%. Porterville, 93%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 12, 2018: Stratford .NA, Parlier .58, Blackwell .72 Lindcove .56, Arvin .74, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .59, Delano .66., Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 56, Delano 55, Madera Two 54
7.2
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1391, -549 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 56.4 +7.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.64 season. or -4.89. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -2.55, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 753, Parlier, 777, Arvin, 690, Shafter, 843, Stratford, 780, Madera two, 1268, Lindcove, 903, Porterville, 1225. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 5:38 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:48
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.99 46 15.53 179 8.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.55 45 12.52 160 7.82 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.29 32 12.21 171 7.13 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.55 22 11.74 167 7.04 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.64 25 11.11 168 6.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.78 30 7.76 132 5.89 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 30 6.59 179 3.69 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 7 6.65 219 3.04 5.18
SALINAS T 2.51 33 11.31 147 7.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 2.30 30 12.84 170 7.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 2.02 25 12.88 158 8.15 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, February 14/pm