February 27, 2018
Summary: For the few of you who have not looked outside so far this morning, it actually rained last night with precipitation amounts ranging from a few hundredths to as much as a quarter of an inch. Not exactly a gullywasher, but it did prove rain is possible in central California this year. The center of circulation of the upper low is just west of Santa Maria at this hour. The counterclockwise circulation around the low now has the winds aloft above the valley out of the east. Currently these winds are nudging light showers from the Sierra into the valley, mainly in Fresno County. The chance for showers will continue today then by tonight the low should be somewhere near Los Angeles. From there, it will accelerate eastward into Arizona on Wednesday.
Snow is once again falling into the foothills as snow levels have dropped down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet as the coldest portion of the low is currently right above us. Highs this afternoon in many locations will probably range in the lower 50s. as skies clear tonight, below freezing temperatures are again likely. It will be one of those chaotic nights as it typically is behind an exiting storm system, but temperatures below 30 degrees are certainly possible in the coldest locations. This is discussed below.
A temporary ridge of upper level high pressure will pass quickly through on Wednesday. The next Pacific storm has more potential than we’ve seen in quite some time. The low center will park over the Pacific Northwest with the bottom side of the low southward into northern and central California. The flow around the bottom side of the system will have the winds aloft out of the west which will be somewhat milder, allowing temperatures to begin to warm up somewhat beginning Wednesday afternoon and on through Saturday. The winds aloft will also be coming in perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. This will squeeze moisture out as the air is lifted. The opposite is anticipated along the west side of the valley which will be under the influence of a rain shadow, as will Kern County. Even so, potentially as much as a half inch of rain could fall, mainly along the east side, between Thursday and Saturday as this storm will be a slow mover.
The storm will finally move eastward Saturday night for a return to dry conditions. Temperatures will remain below average, however, through the middle of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy today with scattered showers likely. Clearing tonight with the possible exception of Kern County which may have lingering clouds against the mountains for much of the night. Mostly clear Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with periods of rain at times Thursday through Friday with scattered showers possible Friday night and Saturday. Clearing Saturday night. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 52/27/61/37/61 | Reedley 53/29/61/39/61 | Dinuba 52/28/61/38/59 | |
| Porterville 53/28/62/38/62 | Lindsay 53/27/61/39/63 | Delano 52/29/62/39/63 | |
| Bakersfield 52/33/62/41/64 | Arvin 51/30/62/39/64 | Taft 53/36/62/43/64 | |
| Lamont 53/30/62/40/63 | Pixley 53/29/62/39/63 | Tulare 52/27/62/38/62 | |
| Woodlake 53/28/61/39/61 | Hanford 53/29/62/40/60 | Orosi 53/28/61/39/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Periods of rain 44/59 |
Saturday
Scattered showers 40/55 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 32/59 |
Monday
Mostly clear 33/59 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 2 through March 8: If you’re looking for a milder weather regime, this model is not what you want to look at as well below average temperatures are likely. The good news, however, is this model is also projecting at least a better than even chance of rain.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through this evening, becoming generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions tonight through Wednesday. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north, continuing Friday.
Rain: Here are a few rain totals as of midnight: Stratford .05, Parlier .22, Blackwell .19, Lindcove .21, Arvin .30, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .12, Delano .13, Madera .22.
As of the time of this writing, we find ourselves on the northeast flank of low pressure just to the west of Santa Maria. Showers are forming over the Sierra then moving from east to west across the valley, mainly in Fresno and Madera Counties. The chance for scattered showers will continue for the rest of the day then end by this evening. Tonight through Wednesday night will be dry then a considerably more substantial system will begin to affect the area Thursday. Central California will be on the southern flank of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring the winds aloft and the jet stream out of the west Thursday and Friday for what should be significant precipitation along the Sierra Nevada. On the flip side, a rain shadow along the west side of the valley and in Kern County will hold down totals there. Still, with some luck we should pick up some decent amounts of rain, possibly as much as a half inch north of Kern County and along the east side. Showers will be possible from Thursday through Saturday as this will be a slow mover. Dry weather will return Saturday night and will last through much of next week.
Frost: A pool of cold air is now right above the San Joaquin Valley and will settle in to the valley floor as we move into the nighttime hours. Below freezing temperatures can be expected in many areas tonight, although the first night behind a storm system is typically chaotic and I believe that will be the case tonight. Upslope clouds are possible against the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, at least through the evening hours. It’s somewhat of a toss of the dice on whether these clouds will dissipate by the early morning hours. For this forecast, I’ll operate under the assumption that they will, at least in most areas.
Coldest overnight lows tonight will drop down to 25 to 27 or so with many other locations between 28 and 32. It’s possible local wind conditions, mixing, and possible cloud cover could keep some areas in the low to mid 30s, but for now that will not be in the official forecast. Fortunately, this will be a one night stand as cloud cover will be increasing Wednesday night ahead of a system that will affect the valley through Saturday. Moderation will slowly take place next week which should allow temperatures to gradually return to above freezing levels.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia, 55%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/90%
Actual Humidity February 25, 2018: Delano, 79%/29%. Porterville, 83%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days February 25, 2018: Stratford .83, Parlier .69, Blackwell .80 Lindcove .64, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .66, Delano .71., Madera Two .70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 51, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 49, Porterville 52, Delano 50, Madera Two 50
7.2
Record Temperatures: 83/25. Average Temperatures: 64/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1610, -508 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 52.0 +2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 1.65 season. or -5.83. Month to Date: .01
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.10, or -3.13, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 910, Parlier, 934, Arvin, 811, Shafter, 977, Stratford, 925, Madera two, 1436, Lindcove, 1064, Porterville, 1386. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:32 am Sunset: 5:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 31 / 0.15 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 32 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 61 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 59 / 41 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 48 / 43 / 0.19 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.24 4.23 43 17.64 179 9.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.17 3.73 42 14.03 157 8.91 13.11
MERCED 0.21 2.51 30 13.35 161 8.29 12.50
MADERA 0.15 1.73 21 13.09 161 8.14 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.65 22 12.58 167 7.55 11.50
HANFORD T 1.78 26 9.10 134 6.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 26 7.25 170 4.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 225 3.46 5.18
SALINAS 0.13 2.64 30 14.20 161 8.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.30 2.60 30 14.47 164 8.81 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.14 2.16 23 16.07 168 9.59 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, February 27/pm