March 2, 2018
Summary: Numerous bands of showers are moving through the valley at this hour north of Kern County. Doppler radar continues to indicate heavy precipitation is falling over the foothills and the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. It now appears as much as 3 to 4 feet of new snow may accumulate in the higher elevations before this storm winds down Saturday evening. The center of circulation of the low is now centered just off the coast of Crescent City, California. The circulation of the storm has precipitation falling as far south as Los Angeles along the coast and Kern County inland. The colder sector of this storm will begin to arrive later tonight and Saturday. Snow levels, which are currently near 5000 feet will drop to about 3,000 feet, especially Saturday. The low will finally make its move eastward Saturday evening with dry weather and cold overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday. More about that in the frost discussion below.
Upper level high pressure will move in from the west Sunday through Wednesday night. I still want to go with a dry forecast for next Thursday through Saturday. However, that’s a low confidence call for now as a milder type Pacific storm will approach the Oregon/northern California coast during this time frame. A lot of flip flopping is occurring on models regarding the potential for rain for the valley. Models are also hinting at the possibility of another system affecting the region a week from Sunday. That’s much too far out to try to nail down.
The new two week model has shifted a bit. Instead of below average temperatures, it’s now calling for near to marginally above average temperatures. But, it’s also calling for a better than even chance at precipitation during this time frame.
Forecast: Periods of rain tonight. Showers likely Saturday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through the early evening hours. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers ending by late evening. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Partly cloudy Sunday morning. Becoming mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/55/30/59 | Reedley 45/56/31/59 | Dinuba 42/55/29/58 | |
| Porterville 44/56/31/60 | Lindsay 43/55/30/60 | Delano 44/57/32/60 | |
| Bakersfield 45/56/34/59 | Arvin 44/57/34/60 | Taft 45/57/35/59 | |
| Lamont 47/57/33/60 | Pixley 43/56/30/59 | Tulare 43/55/29/58 | |
| Woodlake 44/56/31/59 | Hanford 44/56/31/60 | Orosi 44/56/30/60 | |
Winds: Winds will continue tonight out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Saturday night. Winds Sunday and Monday will be generally less than 12 MPH.
Rain: Numerous bands of showers are currently moving from southwest to northeast across the valley north of Kern County. As the low sags a little further southward tonight, Kern County should begin to pick up on and off precipitation again. The precipitation pattern Saturday will become showery. Colder air will begin moving in aloft which brings us to the possibility of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through the evening hours. If these storms do develop, they would result in isolated areas of heavy rain and small hail. The showers will begin to wind down Saturday evening with dry weather later Saturday night, continuing through at least Wednesday night. For now, I’ll still go with a dry forecast for Thursday through Saturday of next week. That’s a low confidence call, though, as models are going back and forth on handling a milder, more mid Pacific storm which may enter the picture during this time frame. Medium range models are also pointing to the possibility of another system about a week from Sunday. Of course, that’s too far away to have any confidence in as of yet.
Precipitation totals from tonight through Saturday evening could tally another quarter to a half inch on the east side north of Kern County, possibly another quarter to a third of an inch on the west side and probably less than a quarter inch in Kern County.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. We are still looking at Sunday and Monday mornings for the possibility of below freezing temperatures. Two different models place Porterville at 32 degrees Sunday morning which would put the frost pockets down into the upper 20s. actually, temperatures Sunday morning may be quite variable due to lingering upslope clouds against the Sierras and the Kern County mountains with local wind conditions and mixing also playing roles. Still, the air mass Saturday night and Sunday morning will be quite cold for this time of year, so I’m still looking at two solutions. The milder one, which puts clouds and other parameters into play, would see temperatures in the low to mid 30s. The other one is that cloud cover will dissipate during the early morning hours, in which case upper 20s to lower 30s are certainly possible. Monday morning will be much more stable with probably little to no cloud cover so there will be a greater possibility of upper 20s and lower 30s Monday morning. For now, we’ll go with low to mid 30s Tuesday morning. The rest of next week will see a westerly flow which will result in above average daytime temperatures which will begin to drag up overnight lows as well. With that in mind, above freezing conditions can be expected the rest of next week and probably the following week, as well.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Next report: Saturday morning, March 3