March 5 2018
Summary: Even though it was cold last night with a number of locations at or below freezing, a significant warm up will begin today. Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west. Surface high pressure is also beginning to build over the Great Basin which, beginning today, will create an off shore flow. This will contribute to the warming trend. This trend will be most pronounced in Kern County where downslope winds mix into the air on the valley floor, causing temperatures to rise faster than at points further north. The high will dominate our pattern through Wednesday with dry conditions and above average temperatures.
From Thursday and beyond, the weather pattern is becoming quite complex. Three storm systems may have an impact on our region. The first system will move inland through the Pacific Northwest. Models depict a cold front moving into northern California then stalling just to our north before falling apart by Friday night. For now, I feel a slight chance of showers is possible for Thursday and Friday.
The Sunday/Monday time frame is beginning to look more interesting with time. Both the European and the American models show a subtropical low moving into central California Sunday. Models portray this system as quite strong with the possibility of significant amounts of rain, especially over the mountains where snow levels will be very high.
On Monday, a colder low is projected to move southward, kicking the second system into the Great Basin. Models also indicate this storm has potentially significant amounts of precipitation.
Beyond Monday, dry conditions are expected to prevail for at least a few days, but the two week model continues to show a higher than average chance for rain.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday night with late night and early morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Thursday with a slight chance of showers lasting through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness again Sunday with rain becoming likely at times through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/32/68/39/71 | Reedley 62/33/69/40/72 | Dinuba 61/31/68/38/71 | |
| Porterville 63/34/70/39/73 | Lindsay 63/32/70/38/72 | Delano 63/35/71/40/73 | |
| Bakersfield 64/39/73/44/74 | Arvin 65/37/73/42/75 | Taft 63/44/72/46/75 | |
| Lamont 63/36/70/39/73 | Pixley 62/33/70/41/72 | Tulare 60/32/68/38/70 | |
| Woodlake 62/33/70/39/72 | Hanford 61/35/70/40/72 | Orosi 61/32/69/39/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Slight chance of showers 45/72 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 49/69 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 49/71 |
Sunday
Rain likely 52/68 |
Monday
Periods of rain 51/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 12 through March 18: for the first time in a couple of weeks, this model is not calling for below average temperatures, but rather near to marginally above average temperatures. One thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that this model indicates the possibility of above average precipitation during this time frame.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Wednesday night. The pattern is quite complex for Thursday and beyond. A cold front will move into northern California Thursday, possibly spreading light showers into the area north of Kern County Thursday and Friday. I’m quite skeptical of this for now, so we’ll just phrase this as a slight chance of showers for now. Sunday and Monday is where the pattern becomes quite interesting. Some of the high resolution models paint a subtropical low moving in from the eastern Pacific and into central California Sunday with significant amounts of precipitation, continuing through Sunday night. Another potentially strong storm system will kick the first one eastward Monday with another possible round of precipitation through Monday night. Tuesday will usher in several days of dry weather, but the two week model continues to indicate a high probability of more rain down the road.
Frost: As of 6:00am, the coldest location I could find was again at Navelencia which was reporting 27 degrees. Exeter was down to 29 with most other locations in the low to mid 30s.
Tonight will be milder as the combination of an off shore flow and upper level high pressure building in from the west will set up a quick moderation process through mid week. The coldest locations tonight will dip down to 30 to 32 with most locations above freezing. For Wednesday and beyond, there’s no chance of frost as there could potentially be a considerable amount of cloud cover and a chance of showers Thursday through Friday. A very warm storm may be moving into central California for rain and very mild temperatures. For now, it does not appear below freezing weather will occur later next week, as well.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
AF |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 40%-85% Bakersfield: 30%-70%
Actual Humidity March 2 2018: Delano, 90%/59%. Porterville, 97%/64%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% 90% tomorrow Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 2, 2018: Stratford .61, Parlier .39, Blackwell .60 Lindcove .41, Arvin .62, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .41, Delano .50., Madera Two .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
Record Temperatures: 84/30. Average Temperatures: 66/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1711, -478 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 51.0 -2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.22 season. or -4.68. Month to Date: 1.32
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.57, or -2.92, Month to Date: .25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:24 am Sunset: 5:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:30
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 38 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 32 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 38 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.18 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 35 / 0.18 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 53 / 40 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 5.60 54 17.64 170 10.35 14.06
MODESTO T 4.45 47 14.03 149 9.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.82 43 13.35 151 8.83 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.29 38 13.09 150 8.70 12.02
FRESNO T 3.22 40 12.58 158 7.98 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.52 35 9.10 126 7.23 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.57 35 7.25 160 4.53 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 6 7.80 216 3.61 5.18
SALINAS 0.03 3.56 38 14.29 153 9.34 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.09 44 14.48 154 9.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.53 25 16.08 158 10.20 13.95
Next Report: Monday, March 5/pm