March 7, 2018
Summary: Overcast conditions prevailed last night. Mid and high level moisture moved in from the west. It’s being flung eastward by a large low well off the Pacific Northwest coast. The cloud deck is high with a broken layer of clouds based at about 10,000 feet with a solid layer at 18,000 feet. Satellite imagery shows the back side of this cloud deck will begin to move through possibly by early to mid afternoon so it’s possible most of the afternoon will be mostly sunny.
A strong westerly flow continues in the upper atmosphere across the eastern Pacific Ocean and into California under a giant low pressure system located about 800 miles west/southwest of the southern Oregon coast. Dry weather will continue through Thursday night but by Friday afternoon, a subtropical low will be approaching the southern California coast. Precipitation will spread over southern California and, if models hold, rain will reach at least as far north as Fresno County. This will be a pretty fast moving system so rainfall amounts are not expected to be particularly heavy.
A digging trough of low pressure from the eastern Gulf of Alaska will move into northern California Sunday. It will spread more precipitation over the area. The jet stream will swing along its southern flank, energizing an already unstable air mass, thus precipitation amounts especially north of Kern County could be fairly decent Sunday through Sunday night.
It now appears a ridge of high pressure will build in from the west for dry weather Monday through Wednesday. Each set of computer models that comes across my desk literally rewrites the pattern for the middle of next week and beyond. Let’s just say it looks like there will be more opportunities for rain for Thursday on with the two week model remaining on that bandwagon along with below average temperatures.
Forecast: Overcast this morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this afternoon through tonight. Partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly cloudy Thursday night through Sunday night with an increasing chance of rain Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The likelihood of rain Sunday and Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/37/72/44/69 | Reedley 72/37/73/48/71 | Dinuba 72/36/73/45/70 | |
| Porterville 73/38/74/48/72 | Lindsay 73/37/74/48/71 | Delano 73/41/74/49/72 | |
| Bakersfield 74/44/75/50/73 | Arvin 75/41/75/48/74 | Taft 73/47/74/50/73 | |
| Lamont 74/42/74/48/73 | Pixley 73/38/74/45/71 | Tulare 72/37/73/46/70 | |
| Woodlake 72/38/74/46/71 | Hanford 73/37/75/48/71 | Orosi 72/37/73/47/70 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Showers likely 52/68 |
Sunday
Rain likely 55/70 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 47/74 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 49/73 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 45/72 |
Two Week Outlook: March 14 through March 20: Once again, the two week model is pointing to below average temperatures. One thing that hasn’t changed is the fact that this model indicates the possibility of above average precipitation during this time frame.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be less than 12 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, especially nights and early mornings.
Rain: Doppler radar is actually indicating there are light showers aloft along the central coast, but the precipitation is dissipating before reaching the ground. It will look a bit threatening for the remainder of the morning, but then skies will begin to at least partially clear during the afternoon with dry weather through at least Thursday night.
By Friday afternoon, a subtropical low will begin to spread precipitation into southern and central California which will last through probably the first half of the day Saturday. This system will be quick to exit the region, so heavy amounts are not expected though precipitation will be widespread.
Another system will rotate along the southern flank of a trough of low pressure which by that time will stretch from off shore British Columbia to northern California by Sunday morning. Sunday through Sunday night seems to be our best shot at decent rain. Due to a warm southwesterly flow associated with this low, snow levels will be fairly high.
For now, it looks like we’ll have dry conditions Monday through Wednesday, however each set of computer models seems to rewrite the possible weather outcome for the latter part of next week. For now, it appears there will at least be chances of more rain from Thursday of next week and beyond. The two week model is pointing to a big cool down along with a fairly high risk of rain. This would encompass the 14th through the 20th.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the foreseeable future.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/95% Bakersfield: 20%/65%
Actual Humidity March 5 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40% 50% tomorrow Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days March 5, 2018: Stratford .65, Parlier .44, Blackwell .62 Lindcove .46, Arvin .60, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .44, Delano .49, Madera Two .56. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 53, Delano 52, Madera Two 52
Record Temperatures: 86/31. Average Temperatures: 66/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1730, -465 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for February so far, 49.5 -4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 3.22 season. or -4.83. Month to Date: 1.32
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 1.57, or -3.00, Month to Date: .25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 952, Parlier, 977, Arvin, 851, Shafter, 1007, Stratford, 965, Madera two, 1480, Lindcove, 1105, Porterville, 1433. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:21 am Sunset: 5:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 71 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1524 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 67 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 5.60 53 17.89 170 10.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.45 47 14.09 148 9.55 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.82 42 13.51 150 8.99 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.29 37 13.19 149 8.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.22 40 12.87 158 8.12 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.52 34 9.21 125 7.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.57 34 7.29 158 4.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.20 5 7.81 213 3.66 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.56 37 14.79 156 9.50 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.09 43 14.63 153 9.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.53 24 16.22 156 10.40 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, March 7/pm