April 5, 2018
Summary: Clouds are already increasing over central California ahead of what will become a possibly historic event for this late in the season. Currently, a powerful low is located about 700 miles west of the Washington state coast with a huge atmospheric river of air flanked underneath. This will slam northern California tonight through Saturday and central California from late Friday morning through Saturday evening. Historically, the amount of moisture involved in this tropical feed is extremely high. Lift along the Sierra Nevada will press out impressive amounts of precipitation, especially from Kings Canyon northward. The jet stream will be flanked over central California, running from west to east at near 100 knots. This is a classic set up for a big rain shadow to develop along the west side and it should zap rainfall totals over the west side of the valley and in Kern County where the dynamics will be much weaker, anyway. The low will move into the interior west Sunday for a return to dry weather.
There are two other, much weaker, waves of low pressure which will move into northern and central California. One will arrive about Tuesday and the second Thursday and Thursday night. Each of these systems will be fast movers with the main energy going into northern California. The fact that the flow aloft will largely be out of the west will maintain generally above average temperatures next week. Even the two week model is suggesting a better than even chance of more rain about the middle of the month.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Mostly cloudy tonight. A chance of showers by late Friday morning with periods of rain north of Kern County Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, locally heavy at times along mainly the east side from roughly Visalia north. Lighter showers can be expected over Kern County later Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of light showers, especially from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy Thursday with a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/55/70/58/72 | Reedley 78/56/71/58/73 | Dinuba 77/56/70/57/71 | |
| Porterville 79/56/70/59/73 | Lindsay 78/56/71/58/73 | Delano 79/56/74/60/73 | |
| Bakersfield 80/58/77/61/74 | Arvin 80/56/78/61/75 | Taft 79/61/76/62/74 | |
| Lamont 80/55/77/61/75 | Pixley 79/55/74/59/75 | Tulare 78/55/71/57/72 | |
| Woodlake 77/55/70/58/71 | Hanford 78/56/71/59/71 | Orosi 78/55/70/59/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Partly cloudy 44/71 |
Monday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 53/74 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 48/77 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 47/73 |
Two Week Outlook: April 12 through April 18: This model is indicating a possibility of a colder trough of low pressure sinking southward from the Gulf of Alaska and possibly affecting northern and central California for a better than even chance of precipitation. It also appears we will revert to a pattern which should bring temperatures to somewhat below average for a change.
March: Not much encouragement as far as rainfall is concerned as this model is indicating below average precipitation, especially over the second half of the month. So far, this model predicts near average temperatures.
March, April, May: The ninety-day outlook doesn’t exactly make one happy if rain is the desired outcome. It does show a better than average chance of above average temperatures, mainly due to high pressure off shore, and below average precipitation.
Winds: Winds will be variable in nature and generally less than 12 MPH through tonight. From Friday through Saturday, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the west at less than 12 MPH.
Rain: A weather event of possible historic proportions will begin to affect central California in about another 24 hours. A powerful Pacific storm is located about 700 miles west of Washington this morning and is moving eastward. Of more importance is an atmospheric river of air which will begin to slam northern California tonight and central California as early as later Friday morning with the chance of rain rapidly increasing during the afternoon. Periods of rain, heavy at times north of Kern County, will continue Friday night through Saturday evening. This storm will also have two opposites. The first will be a rain shadow developing along the western and southern flanks of the valley, lowering the potential precipitation amounts there. On the other side of the coin, we have very strong lift along the Sierra Nevada which will potentially wring out tremendous amounts of rain, possibly historic amounts for this late in the season. As much as 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall from Kings Canyon northward from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Flooding concerns along rivers and streams will be high the deeper into the event we progress.
The east side of the valley could get as much as an inch of precip from northern Tulare County northward with just a quarter to a third of an inch along the west side and a quarter inch or possibly less over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Saturday night and continue through Monday night. A fast moving system will slide through Tuesday and Tuesday night for a chance of showers, especially from Fresno northward, but amounts will be light. Another fast moving system will head through just to our north for a slight chance of showers Thursday from mainly Fresno County northward.
Models going out through the 18th of the month are indicating an active pattern from time to time. We’ll see if all of this will improve the water situation as the rainfall season definitely arrived extremely late this year.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/70%
Actual Humidity April 3, 2018: Delano, 86%/30%, Porterville, 94%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days April 3, 2018: Stratford 1.38, Parlier 1.18, Blackwell 1.28 Lindcove 1.13, Arvin 1.32, Orange Cove 1.23, Porterville 1.17, Delano 1.21, Madera Two 1.12. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 65, Blackwell 65, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 66, Delano 68, Madera Two 62
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 11 +7 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for April so far, 65.5 -7.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.09 season. or -3.76. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.73, or -1.92, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 7:24 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 85 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 81 / 61 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 54 / 0.00 /
Rainfall Totals:
STOCKTON 0.00 7.37 60 19.82 160 12.35 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 5.78 51 15.30 136 11.27 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.66 53 14.64 137 10.69 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.51 64 13.70 134 10.25 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.09 62 13.66 138 9.89 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.41 51 9.62 111 8.64 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.73 66 7.41 131 5.67 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.82 20 7.89 192 4.10 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.29 46 15.52 136 11.44 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.42 81 15.01 129 11.63 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 5.60 44 16.92 134 12.62 13.95
Next Report: Friday, April 6