May 15, 2018
Summary: Looking at visible satellite imagery at this hour we find the usual fog and low cloud deck along the coast, extending inland with only the last range of mountains separating the valley from that coastal air. Satellite imagery also clearly depicts a finger of low clouds moving through the Delta then northward all the way up to Sacramento.
We now have two low pressure systems to deal with. The first is centered over central Nevada. It will move slowly northward into Idaho later today and tonight. The second is a few hundred miles off the northern California coast and will move through central California late tonight through early Thursday. This new system appears dry, but will add enough dynamics to the atmosphere to trigger scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
As far as the valley is concerned, the main ramifications of all this will be cooler than average temperatures Wednesday through Friday. We may see enough modified sea breeze pushing over the coastal mountains and into the valley later tonight and Wednesday to form upslope clouds against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis, so don’t be surprised if you see some cloud cover beginning late tonight through Thursday morning.
The low will finally move eastward Friday, allowing a weak ridge to build in from the west only to be replaced by another upper level low which will move into central California Monday through Tuesday. So far, this again appears to be a dry event, but it will continue to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Monday through Wednesday of next week.
Later next week, weak low pressure will be over the interior west and temperatures may struggle up to marginally above average after next Wednesday.
Forecast: Other than some clouds in eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties this morning, it will be mostly clear. Becomingly partly cloudy later tonight through Thursday morning then mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/53/75/52/79 | Reedley 82/54/78/52/80 | Dinuba 82/54/78/53/79 | |
| Porterville 82/55/79/52/80 | Lindsay 82/54/77/51/79 | Delano 83/56/78/54/80 | |
| Bakersfield 82/56/78/55/78 | Arvin 83/57/77/55/78 | Taft 83/58/78/57/78 | |
| Lamont 82/56/77/54/79 | Pixley 82/55/78/52/79 | Tulare 82/53/78/55/78 | |
| Woodlake 83/55/78/54/79 | Hanford 82/55/77/52/79 | Orosi 83/55/78/53/78 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 54/82 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 58/85 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 57/85 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 55/84 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 55/85 |
Two Week Outlook: May 21 through May 27: This model, in one way, shape, or form, indicates a weak trough of low pressure will hang for several days over the interior west. This would result in a relatively strong on shore flow, maintaining near average temperatures. Any precipitation would likely be confined to the Sierra Nevada in the form of isolated PM thunderstorms.
May: This model is indicating upper level high pressure will be somewhat more dominant over the Desert Southwest, stretching into the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern typically means generally above average temperatures and would also result in below average precipitation.
May, June, July: Now we head into the heart of summer, which is typically dry for central California. This model is indicating even drier than average conditions will prevail. Upper level high pressure will be dominant, maintaining generally above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH today, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH for a time tonight and possibly Wednesday morning with local gusts to 30 MPH not out of the question, mainly along the west side. Winds later Wednesday through Friday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/80% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity May 13, 2018: Delano, 89%/26%, Porterville, 81%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 13, 2018: Stratford 1.89, Parlier 1.73, Blackwell 1.96 Lindcove 1.64, Arvin 1.84, Orange Cove 1.83, Porterville 1.68, Delano 1.69, Madera Two 1.80. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 71, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 70, Arvin, 79, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 78, Delano 76, Madera Two NA
Record Temperatures: 102/43. Average Temperatures: 84/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 140 +59 Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for May so far, 69.7 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.16. Month to Date: .00
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.26. Month to Date: T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:51 am Sunset: 8:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14.07
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 84 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 81 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1657 / 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 80 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 9.09 68 21.68 161 13.43 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.00 64 16.79 135 12.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.91 58 15.79 133 11.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 63 14.17 124 11.39 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 62 17.20 158 10.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 49 11.04 115 9.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.93 63 7.81 126 6.20 6.47
BISHOP T 1.25 28 9.03 206 4.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.13 58 16.36 132 12.38 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 78 16.14 131 12.33 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 135 13.61 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, May 16