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Forecast

June 1, 2018/report

June 1, 2018

Summary: Today will be the transition day between the very mild temperatures of yesterday and seasonal temperatures today.  The layer of marine air on the valley floor will quickly mix out this afternoon, allowing temperatures to jump into the mid 80s at most locations, as opposed to the 70s of yesterday.  We’re off to a very cool start to begin the month of June as many locations have dipped into the mid 40s.  that will change as rapid warming occurs over the weekend as a relatively strong upper level high begins to build in from the west.  Look for readings to jump  into the mid to upper 90s Saturday and the lower 100s at  most locations Sunday when the high reaches its pinnacle.  Already this morning, the freezing level has jumped back to 14,100 feet and satellite imagery indicates no coastal fog whatsoever alone the northern and central coasts with only light winds in the Delta.

 

Monday will see the beginning of a slow cooling trend as a weak low moves into the Pacific Northwest and digs a trough southwestward along the northern and central coasts.  There are model differences in how to handle the exact pattern for next week.  Most show a strong high building over Texas and Oklahoma with California possibly sandwiched between the large high to our southeast and the off shore trough.  The position of these two features will largely determine the temperature outcome for next week.  We could see readings dip to near seasonal average by Wednesday, however if that Texas high expands further west, temperatures would remain generally in the low to mid 90s.

 

 

Forecast: Clear and warmer today.  Clear and hot Saturday through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Friday with a slow cooling trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

 

 

 

 

Madera 86/55/97/62/102 Reedley 85/56/97/62/103 Dinuba 84/54/96/61/101
Porterville 86/55/98/62/103 Lindsay 86/56/98/61/102 Delano 85/58/97/64/102
Bakersfield 85/65/97/71/104 Arvin 85/61/97/68/103 Taft 85/67/97/75/101
Lamont 85/61/97/70/104 Pixley 85/56/98/62/102 Tulare 84/54/96/61/101
Woodlake 86/56/98/64/103 Hanford 85/55/97/62/103 Orosi 86/56/98/61/103

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

65/97

Tuesday

Mostly clear

59/93

Wednesday

Mostly clear

57/92

Thursday

Mostly clear

58/90

Friday

Mostly clear

57/91

 

Two Week Outlook:  June 6 through June 13:  This model shows a trough of low pressure moving into the western states and remaining for a few days.  No precipitation would be expected with this pattern, however temperatures would lower to near seasonal values.

 

June:  As we head into the summer months, it appears this June will be mostly dry, as is typical.  Models are projecting higher than average pressure patterns during the month so look for temperatures, generally speaking, to be above average. 

 

June, July, August:  All summers are hot in the San Joaquin Valley, and typically very dry.  This summer will be  no exception.  If there’s any tendency on modeling at all it would be that upper level high pressure would be marginally stronger than average with temperatures also running marginally above average.  The monsoon season will begin in several weeks so it’s impossible to tell it will be an active one this year.  We’ll just have to wait and see.   

 

Winds: Winds will be at or less than 15 MPH afternoons and evenings and mainly out of the northwest.  Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally less than 7 MPH with near calm conditions through Monday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s..  Kern: Low to mid 40s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/80%  Bakersfield: 20%/55%

Actual Humidity May 30, 2018: Delano, 77%/25%, Porterville, 70%/15%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%  tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days May 30, 2018: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.65, Blackwell 2.02, Lindcove 1.53, Arvin 1.73, Orange Cove 1.74, Porterville 1.66, Delano 1.72, Madera Two 1.71.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 73, Blackwell 78, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 81, Delano 74, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 110/46. Average Temperatures: 88/57

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 249 +66 Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for May so far, 70.5 +1.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since July 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.36.  Month to Date: .T

Since July 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.32.  Month to Date: T

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:41 am  Sunset: 8:12 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:29

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  77 /  50 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  78 /  52 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  79 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  80 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  81 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  78 /  52 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1646 /  77 /  49 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  51 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 /  78 /  57 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  73 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.75   159    13.68    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   133    12.71    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    59   15.98   133    12.06    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    63   14.18   123    11.54    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    61   17.20   155    11.10    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    48   11.04   113     9.74    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    63    7.82   125     6.27     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.49    33    9.16   204     4.50     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.15    57   16.38   131    12.54    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.43    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.72    13.95

Next report:  Saturday, June 2