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Forecast

June 12, 2018/report

July 12, 2018

Summary: A great deal of cloudiness covers the southern two-third of California this morning.  Most of the clouds are leftovers from thunderstorms over Nevada and the southern Sierra Nevada.  We have a very warm bubble of subsiding air above us, indicative of high pressure aloft.  The freezing level over Oakland this  morning was up to 16,400 feet.  The marine layer stands at 1,800 feet, but there’s not enough pressure difference between the off shore waters and Nevada to tug that marine air inland.  The winds aloft are currently out of the east and will continue to bring monsoon moisture into central California.  Temperature forecasting will be a bit tricky.  Areas with a great amount of sunshine will easily eclipse the century mark while cloudier locations should be in the upper 90s to the lower 100s.

 

By Sunday, a very strong high center is projected to be right over California.  The monsoon may be crushed a bit but there will still be at least a chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.  From Sunday on, temperatures will soar into the 102 to 108 degree range unless heavy cloud cover moves over the area on any given day.

 

Medium range models are still showing relatively strong high pressure over the western states with a trough east of the Rockies.  This will allow hot weather to continue with monsoon moisture rotating in from the southeast from time to time.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times through Thursday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night and at times through Thursday and continued hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 102/71/102/70/102 Reedley 101/70/100/70/101 Dinuba 99/69/99/70/100
Porterville 102/72/102/71/102 Lindsay 101/70/101/71/102 Delano 102/74/102/74/103
Bakersfield 101/78/100/77/102 Arvin 101/74/101/75/101 Taft 102/79/102/78/102
Lamont 102/75/102/75/103 Pixley 101/71/101/70/102 Tulare 99/69/99/70/101
Woodlake 101/70/101/71/102 Hanford 102/72/102/71/102 Orosi 101/70/101/71/102

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

73/104

Monday

Partly cloudy

74/105

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

74/105

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

72/104

Thursday

Partly cloudy

72/105

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 19 through July 25:  This model indicates a continuation of persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest and California.  This pattern will favor monsoon moisture moving into our region from time to time for partly cloudy skies.  Thunderstorms will also be possible each day over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains.  Temperatures will range above seasonal values.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Sunday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions indefinitely

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 25%/70%  Bakersfield: 25%/55%

Actual Humidity July 11, 2018: Delano, 98%/26%, Porterville, 70%/21%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.29, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell 2.11, Lindcove 1.93, +Arvin 2.18, Orange Cove 2.22, Porterville 1.80, Delano 1.90, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 83, Lindcove, 78, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 78, Porterville 83, Delano 80, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 109/54. Average Temperatures: 98/66

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 817.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 83.0 +4.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 5:50 am  Sunset: 8:19 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:29

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 102 /  64 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 104 /  72 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 103 /  65 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 103 /  65 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 103 /  74 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 102 /  65 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1619 / 102 /  69 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  68 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1654 / 103 /  78 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  98 /  65 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    60   17.20   152    11.31    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.49    32    9.16   194     4.73     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.77    13.95

 

Next report:  July 13