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Forecast

July 30, 2018/report

July 30, 2018

Summary: Here we go with a brand new week with the string of 100+ degree weather continuing probably through Saturday.  The high center has shifted just a little further east, allowing a southeast flow to move into southern and central California.  This flow is pumping a minimal amount of monsoonal moisture over central California.  This moisture will only add partly cloudy skies on the valley floor through Tuesday night.  There will be an increased chance of thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.  Even that will begin to taper off on Wednesday, though.

 

The marine layer this morning is only 1,000 feet deep.  It’s’ trickling through the Delta but with that strong high just to our southeast, there is no chance of that sea breeze affecting the central or south valley.

 

On Wednesday, the winds aloft will tilt from a southwesterly direction, nudging the monsoonal cloud cover into the Nevada.  Model information suggests a southwest flow from Wednesday on, so even over the Sierra Nevada, thunderstorm activity will be minimal at best.

 

There is a chance of double digit temperatures early next week.  A trough of low pressure will develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and, depending upon how far south this trough develops, there may be some influence on our temperatures.  For now, it appears we may dip into the upper 90s Monday and possibly beyond to end this ridiculous string of 100+ degree weather.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Tuesday night and continued hot.  Mostly clear Wednesday through Monday of next week and continued hot.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 102/70/103/70/103 Reedley 102/69/103/70/104 Dinuba 102/70/103/71/103
Porterville 104/70/104/71/103 Lindsay 103/69/103/71/103 Delano 105/73/105/73/104
Bakersfield 105/80/105/81/104 Arvin 105/77/106/78/104 Taft 105/82/105/82/104
Lamont 105/78/105/78/105 Pixley 104/71/104/72/103 Tulare 102/70/103/71/103
Woodlake 103/69/103/70/102 Hanford 104/71/104/72/103 Orosi 103/70/103/71/103

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

68/103

Friday

Mostly clear

67/102

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/102

Sunday

Mostly clear

67/101

Monday

Mostly clear

65/99

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 6 through August 12:  Expect a continuation of hot conditions over central California and the southwest.  Monsoonal moisture may occasionally make its way over southern California from time to time.  For now, though, it looks like generally clear skies will remain over central California.

 

July:  This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual.  A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor. 

 

July, August, September:  Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall.  Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Thursday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the low 50s.

Humidity: Visalia: 20%/70%  Bakersfield: 15%/45%

Actual Humidity July 29, 2018: Delano, 88%/25%, Porterville, 68%/19%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.14, Parlier 1.84, Blackwell 2.17, Lindcove 1.85, Arvin 2.28, Orange Cove 1.99, Porterville 1.74, Delano 1.86, Madera Two NA.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, 84, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 84, Madera Two, NA

 

Record Temperatures: 114/57. Average Temperatures: 99/67

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1210 +316.  Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperatures for July so far, 85.2 +5.9

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2017  Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59.  Month to Date: .00

Since Oct 1, 2017,  Bakersfield:  3.93, or -2.40.  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin,  Shafter,  Stratford,  Madera two,  Lindcove,  Porterville,   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:04 am  Sunset: 8:06 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:04

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 102 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 105 /  75 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 105 /  66 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 105 /  66 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 105 /  78 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  68 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 102 /  68 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1642 / 105 /  81 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

Year              %          Last Y.        %                Ave.             Annual ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    9.22    67   21.78   158    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.17    64   16.93   132    12.83    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    7.06    58   16.03   132    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    7.22    61   14.18   121    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    6.73    59   17.20   152    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.70    47   11.05   112     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.95    62    7.82   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.01    62    9.16   190     4.83     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    7.16    57   16.45   130    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    9.62    77   16.14   130    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.01    44   18.44   134    13.79    13.95

 

Next report:  July 31