August 1, 2018
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is near the California/Arizona border again this morning. There are some minor differences as the clockwise flow around the high has winds more out of the south today than the southeast which they were over the past few days. The freezing level is way up there at 16,100 feet, indicating that warm bubble of subsiding air will drive temperatures well above the century mark today and probably through Friday. The winds aloft will become southwesterly Thursday, shoving the monsoon east of the Sierra Nevada. By Friday, those winds aloft will be out of the west.
Slowly but sure, the upper high will be suppressed to the south and east by a fairly decent trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This will effectively strengthen the on shore flow, allowing modified marine air to begin to move in to the central and south valley possibly as early as Friday but for sure Friday night and Saturday. Finally, a break from this endless string of triple digits will occur Saturday as pressures aloft weaken and more and more marine air pushes inland. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 90s Saturday through Monday, which is, for a change, marginally below average.
Enjoy this cool down as it will be short lived. Models show the southwestern high building northward and westward by Tuesday. We will revert back to temperatures that are similar to what we’ve been experiencing with triple digits again becoming the norm.
This change will also result in a southeast flow aloft which will move monsoonal moisture back into southern California. How deep this moisture will be has yet to be determined, but for now probably something along the lines of what we’ve recently seen. By next weekend, we could see a trough move into the Pacific Northwest, possibly marginally lowering temperatures, but there’s not enough model consistency to be certain.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional cloudiness today, continued hot. Mostly clear tonight through Monday with a cooling trend. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday and becoming hot again.
Short Term:
| Madera 103/67/102/66/99 | Reedley 104/68/102/66/100 | Dinuba 102/66/100/64/99 | |
| Porterville 104/68/102/66/101 | Lindsay 104/67/103/66/101 | Delano 105/71/102/69/101 | |
| Bakersfield 105/78/103/75/102 | Arvin 105/76/103/71/102 | Taft 105/81/103/77/102 | |
| Lamont 105/71/103/70/102 | Pixley 104/69/102/67/101 | Tulare 102/67/100/65/99 | |
| Woodlake 104/68/102/66/100 | Hanford 105/71/102/67/101 | Orosi 103/67/101/65/100 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 64/96 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 63/97 |
Monday
Mostly clear 63/98 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 68/101 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 71/104 |
Two Week Outlook: August 7 through August 13: A pattern change is evident on this model. Gone is the strong high that dominated our pattern for the month of July. In its place is a decent on shore flow with near to slightly below average temperatures.
July: This model is indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest will be stronger than usual. A fairly active monsoon is also indicated for periods of thunderstorms over the Sierra and hotter than average temperatures over the valley floor.
July, August, September: Like the 30 day outlook, this model is indicating we’ll have a hot summer, moving into the early fall. Above average precipitation is possible over southern California and the Sierra Nevada due to an active monsoon season with temperatures remaining generally above average for the next three months.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Thursday. Winds Friday and Saturday will mainly be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the Interstate Five corridor.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Visalia: 20%/65% Bakersfield: 15%/45%
Actual Humidity July 31, 2018: Delano, 87%/19%, Porterville, 78%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.07, Parlier 1.74, Blackwell 2.16, Lindcove 1.78, Arvin 2.27, Orange Cove 1.94, Porterville 1.70, Delano 1.84, Madera Two NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Blackwell 84, Lindcove, 80, Arvin, 83, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 86, Delano 83, Madera Two, NA
Record Temperatures: 112/56. Average Temperatures: 99/67
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1249 +329. Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperatures for July so far, 85.2 +6.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2017 Fresno: 6.73 season. or -4.59. Month to Date: .00
Since Oct 1, 2017, Bakersfield: 3.93, or -2.40. Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:05 am Sunset: 8:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:01
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 105 / 78 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 69 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 104 / 80 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 103 / 71 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 70 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 104 / 82 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 9.22 67 21.78 158 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.17 64 16.93 132 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.06 58 16.03 131 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.22 61 14.18 121 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.73 59 17.20 152 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.70 47 11.05 112 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.95 62 7.82 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.01 62 9.16 189 4.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 7.16 57 16.45 130 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.62 77 16.14 130 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.01 44 18.44 134 13.79 13.95
Next report: August 2