October 25, 2018
Summary: A weak area of upper level low pressure which has been over the Desert Southwest the past few days is now moving eastward. This is allowing upper level high pressure located over the eastern Pacific to begin to slowly move on shore for the beginning of a warming trend. Models show this high building northward and eastward with temperatures moving into the mid 80s over the weekend. Some of the warmest locations could briefly move into the upper 80s with Saturday being the most likely day. Already this morning, there is warmer air moving in aloft. The freezing level is now 13,500 feet over Vandenberg.
Beginning Sunday afternoon and night, a rather robust low will move into the Pacific Northwest, flattening out the high. By Monday, a trough will extend southward into the Great Basin, creating a north/northwest flow aloft and spreading a much cooler air mass into central California. We could see low to mid 70s as early as Monday, continuing through much of next week. By Tuesday, an off shore flow will have developed, mixing drier air down to the valley floor. It’s possible readings Tuesday and Wednesday mornings over the valley’s rural areas could dip into the 30s with local frost possible in river bottom and like locations, right on cue for the beginning of the frost season.
Models for next week show the high off the Pacific coast with the main storm track continuing to move into the Pacific Northwest. The position of the high will put California in a north/northwest flow aloft, maintaining rather cool weather but sadly the storm track will be to our north next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies with a warming trend through Sunday. Mostly clear, cooler, and breezy Monday and Monday night. Mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/43/84/46/85 | Reedley 80/44/85/47/86 | Dinuba 79/42/83/45/85 | |
| Porterville 81/44/85/48/87 | Lindsay 81/42/85/46/86 | Delano 81/46/85/49/87 | |
| Bakersfield 81/55/85/60/86 | Taft 80/60/85/61/86 | Arvin 81/49/84/53/87 | |
| Lamont 80/53/85/56/87 | Pixley 81/45/85/48/86 | Tulare 80/43/85/47/85 | |
| Woodlake 79/44/84/48/85 | Hanford 80/45/85/48/86 | Orosi 80/44/84/47/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 49/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 45/74 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 38/72 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/72 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 41/75 |
Two Week Outlook: October 31 through November 6: This model is adamant about a dry forecast for most of the western United States, including California. A big ridge will reside over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. This will also result in above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH through at least Sunday. Potentially locally breezy weather will begin Sunday night and Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 35%/90% Bakersfield: 30%/65%
Actual Humidity October 24, 2018: Delano, 86%/37%, Porterville, 93%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.00, Parlier 0.86, Blackwell 0.98, Lindcove 0.83, Arvin 1.02, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 0.87, Delano 0.87 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 61
Record Temperatures: 91/36. Average Temperatures: 75/46
Heating Degree Days this Season: 15 -45
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.1 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.31 Month to Date: .10 -.31
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.19. Month to Date: .00 -.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:17 am Sunset: 6:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 78 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 79 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 77 / 58 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 242 0.12 23 0.53 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 2 0.12 27 0.45 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 33 0.46 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 16 0.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 24 0.09 22 0.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 14 0.06 21 0.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 190 0.00 0 0.21 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 172 0.13 33 0.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES M M M 0.08 20 0.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 95 0.03 8 0.37 13.95
Next report: Friday, October 26