Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered just west of the California coast, putting the Golden State right on its eastern edge. The clockwise flow around the high has created a northerly flow aloft which is a very dry flow with only some high, thin clouds at times. Otherwise, skies will remain clear. At the surface, weak high pressure covers the Great Basin and is generating an off shore flow which will aid in a warming trend. That warming trend will begin mainly in Kern County today and over the remainder of the valley Thursday. Kern County will reap the benefits of downslope winds which heat by compression.
This same basic pattern will continue through the weekend with the center of the high perhaps a little closer to the coastline, driving temperatures a good 10 to 13 degrees above average during the weekend. Even the medium range models continue to show the basic pattern of upper level high pressure governing California, the Great Basin and the Desert Southwest while the main storm track moves into northern Washington and British Columbia with lighter precipitation into northern and central Oregon. A trough of low pressure will govern the Rocky Mountains and points eastward.
For now, anyway, I just don’t see any major shifts in the pattern that would bring rain back to central California. We’ll keep the forecast dry with above average temperatures for the next week to ten days.
Forecast: Other than occasional high, thin clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday with a warming trend. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/41/78/44/80 | Reedley 75/43/77/46/81 | Dinuba 73/41/77/44/79 | |
| Porterville 76/42/79/46/82 | Lindsay 75/41/77/45/80 | Delano 77/46/78/48/82 | |
| Bakersfield 78/51/80/55/82 | Taft 76/56/80/59/82 | Arvin 78/48/81/53/83 | |
| Lamont 77/50/80/54/82 | Pixley 75/43/77/47/81 | Tulare 73/42/76/46/80 | |
| Woodlake 75/41/78/45/82 | Hanford 75/43/78/46/82 | Orosi 74/43/77/46/81 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 47/81 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 49/82 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Two Week Outlook: November 7 through November 13: This model is showing the vast majority of the lower 48 receiving above average precipitation. There is one lone exception, however, and that is California which stands a high possibility of remaining dry with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH for the next week to ten days.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity October 30, 2018: Delano, NA Porterville, 87%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .90, Parlier .74, Blackwell .84, Lindcove .69, Arvin .88, Orange Cove NA, Porterville .77, Delano .74 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 66, Blackwell 72, Lindcove, 67, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 68, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 90/32. Average Temperatures: 72/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 24 -74
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 66.0 +1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.50 Month to Date: .10 -.50
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.28. Month to Date: .00 -.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:23 am Sunset: 6:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 72 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 70 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 69 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 166 0.12 16 0.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 2 0.12 19 0.64 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.15 20 0.75 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 10 0.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 17 0.09 15 0.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 9 0.06 13 0.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.28 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 138 0.00 0 0.29 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 122 0.13 24 0.55 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 5 0.08 14 0.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 62 0.03 5 0.56 13.95
Next report: Thursday, November 1