November 12, 2018
Summary: It was cold throughout the valley overnight with many locations outside the urban zones at or below freezing, but certainly nothing critical occurred. We’ll discuss more on that in the frost discussion below.
Extremely dry air remains over the western United States with dew points at or near 0 over the mountain areas with dew points ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s over most valley locations. Those readings could fall even more, depending upon the behavior of the strong off shore flow which continues. This past hour, the CHP Grapevine office reported a peak gust of 36 MPH with a gust of 56 MPH earlier.
The high will begin to weaken at midweek, but then will begin to build another ridge northward into the Pacific Northwest and well into northwest Canada by the weekend. This will continue to trap dry air on the valley floor and shunt any storminess well north of our region. For now, I just don’t see anything out there that would contain the necessary dynamics for what is known as a winter storm. So, it appears that for the remainder of the week, daytime highs will be just marginally above average with overnight lows a few degrees below average. This will continue into early next week.
There are various model solutions for around Thanksgiving. A few even show a minimal chance of rain, however, others show a dry pattern continuing.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Thursday. Mostly clear skies continuing Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/29/68/28/70 | Reedley 69/28/68/28/69 | Dinuba 68/28/68/29/69 | |
| Porterville 71/29/70/29/71 | Lindsay 71/28/69/28/70 | Delano 71/31/69/30/69 | |
| Bakersfield 72/43/72/42/71 | Taft 70/48/72/48/71 | Arvin 72/31/72/30/71 | |
| Lamont 71/34/72/33/70 | Pixley 70/30/68/29/70 | Tulare 68/29/68/28/69 | |
| Woodlake 69/29/68/29/69 | Hanford 70/30/69/30/69 | Orosi 69/28/68/28/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 33/74 |
Friday
Mostly clear 37/75 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 38/74 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 38/72 |
Monday
Mostly clear 39/71 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: This model still carries a low chance of precipitation for central California. However, it’s not quite as adamant as the string of previous model runs. The best way to word this is that there will be a low chance of precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: there is still a minor danger of Santa Ana winds moving into portions of the valley region of Kern County, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. So far, the strongest gust has been 56 MPH yesterday afternoon at the Highway Patrol office at the bottom of the Grapevine. The surface flow will actually be a bit more easterly today, but it shouldn’t change the configuration enough to maintain a minimal forecast of winds to near 40 MPH near the base of the Tehachapis. Even though the flow will still be off shore Tuesday, it won’t be strong enough to affect the valley, even in Kern County. From today through Friday, expect winds of generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions with the exceptions mentioned above.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:00am, the thermometer had chilled down to 27 degrees at Fowler, which was the coldest found so far. Madera had reached 29, Reedley 28, Ivanhoe 28, west Lindsay 29, east Lindsay 29, Porterville 29, and McFarland 29.
I would not be totally shocked to see dew points by the early afternoon hours fall even more. For this report, we’ll go with coldest locations down to 26-28 degrees with most flat terrain regions ranging from 28 to 31 and hillsides from 32 and up. The inversion tonight will vary, but will generally be 3 to 7 degrees warmer at 34 feet.
This very dry air is not going anywhere soon. It had appeared a little weak low would allow a westerly flow to develop but for now that does not appear to be the case. By the time we get into Wednesday and Thursday, coldest locations should be in the 29 to 31 degree range and low to mid 30s elsewhere. Hopefully, by early next week we will see dewpoints begin to creep up which would allow temperatures to creep up as well. My feeling is tonight and tomorrow nights may be the coldest we will see in this series. Fortunately, most of this is an upper 20s to lower 30s type event with hillsides generally above freezing.
Longer term, models show varying solutions for early next week, none of which has the signature of a cold air mass.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
35 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 20s. Kern: 8 to 28.
Humidity: Visalia: 15%/75% Bakersfield: 10%/40%
Actual Humidity November 11, 2018: Delano 85%/32%, Porterville, 96%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .84, Parlier .63, Blackwell .78, Lindcove .60, Arvin .77, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .66, Delano .65 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 61, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 64, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 62, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 80/29. Average Temperatures: 67/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 107 -103
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 57.2 +2.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.90 Month to Date: .00 -.37
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.51. Month to Date: .00 -.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 38, Parlier, 63 , Arvin, 41 Shafter, 72 Stratford, 49, Delano 55, Lindcove, 37, Porterville, 84. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:35 am Sunset: 4:51 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 91 0.17 12 1.40 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.25 22 1.12 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.17 13 1.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 6 1.35 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 10 0.10 10 1.00 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 4 0.06 6 0.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 4 0.51 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 85 0.00 0 0.47 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 68 0.32 33 0.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 21 0.99 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 34 0.04 4 1.03 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 12/pm