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Forecast

November 14, 2018/report

November 14, 2018

Summary:  The high clouds that were visible yesterday and last night have now exited and are rapidly moving into southern Nevada and Arizona.  So,  more sunshine will be observed today and over the next couple of days.  Through Monday, we will be under the influence of persistent upper level high pressure.  The freezing level this morning is just below the 13,000 foot mark, indicating the air aloft is quite warm for this time of year.  However, at the surface we have a stale layer of very dry air which will allow afternoon highs to top the 70 degree mark with overnight lows falling to at or marginally below average for a short time before sunrise, especially north of Kern County.  This will be the case through Monday, then a possible change will be coming up around Tuesday or so.  Some models have been pretty consistent in showing a low pressure system forming off the northern California coast about the twenty-second then moving southeastward through central and southern California about the twenty-fourth or twenty-fifth.  Showers would be likely  under this scenario as the same models are indicating decent upper air support as the low moves inland.  In theory, this could cause showers and possibly decent snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada to develop.  All of this is speculative at this point, but certainly worth discussing as there seems to be slowly mounting evidence that will manifest itself as a change in our pattern next week.

 

Forecast: Outside of occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday.  Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday night.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of showers Tuesday night, continuing Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 70/33/70/34/71 Reedley 71/31/70/30/71 Dinuba 69/30/69/31/71
Porterville 71/32/70/32/72 Lindsay 71/30/69/30/71 Delano 72/33/69/33/71
Bakersfield 72/41/73/40/73 Taft 72/48/73/48/73 Arvin 72/35/72/34/74
Lamont 72/35/73/35/73 Pixley 71/32/70/31/71 Tulare 69/31/69/31/70
Woodlake 70/31/69/31/71 Hanford 71/31/71/31/71 Orosi 70/30/70/31/71

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

36/72

Sunday

Partly cloudy

39/70

Monday

Partly cloudy

37/71

Tuesday

PM showers possible

41/69

Wednesday

Chance of showers

48/68

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 20 through November 26:  This model indicates the best chance of rain will occur from the 23 or so on, especially over the southern half of California.  We could see some juicy subtropical moisture move in in association with a deep trough of low pressure along the west coast.  For now, we’ll leave it at that and mention the usual above average temperatures.

 

November:  This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation.  It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well.  As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.

 

November, December January:  According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State.  Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages.  However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest.  Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.

 

Winds:  Expect winds of approximately 7 MPH or less through Friday.

 

Rain:  I don’t feel like I’m grasping at straws quite as much this morning as just about all model information for Monday and beyond show some kind of change occurring as our old nemesis, the eastern Pacific high, removes its ugly head for a while, at least.  Low pressure shows up off shore from the northern California coast Monday then some kind of low or possibly a trough will move eastward through our region about midweek through Thursday with possibly another one further down the road.  With this much variance from model to model, it’s unclear how much precipitation may occur, if any.  If I were a betting man, though, I’d be placing my bets on a chance of precipitation.  The two week model that came out about 12 hours ago is also supporting this idea, so hopefully in about two weeks we’ll be talking about rain with, of course, much needed snow in the Sierra Nevada.

Frost Discussion:  The high clouds which were prevalent yesterday moved off to the southeast during the early morning hours, allowing good radiational cooling.  Those clouds will not be a presence tonight, so a number of locations may drop  into the lower 30s again, especially north of Kern County with a few locations briefly down to 28 or 29 degrees or so.

Temperatures through at least Sunday morning will be mostly governed by dew points.  The valley floor is bone dry which means the typical moderation process is simply missing.  The bottom line is, low to mid 30s will be widespread with a few locations, the usual trouble spots, briefly dipping into the upper 20s.

Beyond Monday, there will be a change in the pattern which could bring precipitation back to  our region.  Even if precipitation does not occur, we should enjoy increasing amounts of cloud cover and slowly rising dew points which should aid in maintaining above freezing conditions.

For now, there’s no pattern showing up that would spell trouble later on.

The inversion tonight will be relatively strong with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.  Expect similar conditions over the next couple of nights.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

33

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

31

McFarland

30

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

29

Exeter

29

Famoso

34

Madera

31

Belridge

31

Delano

34

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

30

Orange cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

32

Arvin

34

Lamont

35

Plainview

31

Mettler

Af

Edison

34

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing                

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s..  Kern: Mid to upper 20s.

Humidity: Porterville: 25%/85% Bakersfield 20%55%

Actual Humidity November 13, 2018: Delano 92%/16%  Porterville, 81%/20%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%  tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .73, Parlier .60, Blackwell .72, Lindcove .56, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .63, Delano .61  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 60, Blackwell 64, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 60, Delano 56

 

Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 65/40

Heating Degree Days this Season: 135 -99

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for November so far: 56.5 +1.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: .10 season. or -0.97  Month to Date: .00 -.44

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.55.  Month to Date: .00 -.25

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 55,  Parlier, 85 ,  Arvin, 59 Shafter, 93  Stratford, 70, Delano 75, Lindcove, 56,  Porterville, 109.   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:37 am  Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:15

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  72 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  71 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  70 /  31 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  74 /  42 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  70 /  34 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  71 /  39 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  71 /  34 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1548 /  70 /  50 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  39 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.28    85    0.22    15     1.50    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.01     1    0.25    21     1.20    13.11

MERCED                        0.00       T     0    0.17    12     1.37    12.50

MADERA                        0.00       T     0    0.08     6     1.43    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10     9    0.10     9     1.07    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.04     4    0.06     6     1.05    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.02     4     0.55     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.40    80    0.00     0     0.50     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.67    63    0.32    30     1.07    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.03     3    0.21    20     1.06    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.35    31    0.04     4     1.12    13.95

Next report:  Wednesday, November 14/pm