November 14, 2018
Summary: The high clouds that were visible yesterday and last night have now exited and are rapidly moving into southern Nevada and Arizona. So, more sunshine will be observed today and over the next couple of days. Through Monday, we will be under the influence of persistent upper level high pressure. The freezing level this morning is just below the 13,000 foot mark, indicating the air aloft is quite warm for this time of year. However, at the surface we have a stale layer of very dry air which will allow afternoon highs to top the 70 degree mark with overnight lows falling to at or marginally below average for a short time before sunrise, especially north of Kern County. This will be the case through Monday, then a possible change will be coming up around Tuesday or so. Some models have been pretty consistent in showing a low pressure system forming off the northern California coast about the twenty-second then moving southeastward through central and southern California about the twenty-fourth or twenty-fifth. Showers would be likely under this scenario as the same models are indicating decent upper air support as the low moves inland. In theory, this could cause showers and possibly decent snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada to develop. All of this is speculative at this point, but certainly worth discussing as there seems to be slowly mounting evidence that will manifest itself as a change in our pattern next week.
Forecast: Outside of occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a chance of showers Tuesday night, continuing Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/33/70/34/71 | Reedley 71/31/70/30/71 | Dinuba 69/30/69/31/71 | |
| Porterville 71/32/70/32/72 | Lindsay 71/30/69/30/71 | Delano 72/33/69/33/71 | |
| Bakersfield 72/41/73/40/73 | Taft 72/48/73/48/73 | Arvin 72/35/72/34/74 | |
| Lamont 72/35/73/35/73 | Pixley 71/32/70/31/71 | Tulare 69/31/69/31/70 | |
| Woodlake 70/31/69/31/71 | Hanford 71/31/71/31/71 | Orosi 70/30/70/31/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 36/72 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 39/70 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/71 |
Tuesday
PM showers possible 41/69 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 48/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 20 through November 26: This model indicates the best chance of rain will occur from the 23 or so on, especially over the southern half of California. We could see some juicy subtropical moisture move in in association with a deep trough of low pressure along the west coast. For now, we’ll leave it at that and mention the usual above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Expect winds of approximately 7 MPH or less through Friday.
Rain: I don’t feel like I’m grasping at straws quite as much this morning as just about all model information for Monday and beyond show some kind of change occurring as our old nemesis, the eastern Pacific high, removes its ugly head for a while, at least. Low pressure shows up off shore from the northern California coast Monday then some kind of low or possibly a trough will move eastward through our region about midweek through Thursday with possibly another one further down the road. With this much variance from model to model, it’s unclear how much precipitation may occur, if any. If I were a betting man, though, I’d be placing my bets on a chance of precipitation. The two week model that came out about 12 hours ago is also supporting this idea, so hopefully in about two weeks we’ll be talking about rain with, of course, much needed snow in the Sierra Nevada.
Frost Discussion: The high clouds which were prevalent yesterday moved off to the southeast during the early morning hours, allowing good radiational cooling. Those clouds will not be a presence tonight, so a number of locations may drop into the lower 30s again, especially north of Kern County with a few locations briefly down to 28 or 29 degrees or so.
Temperatures through at least Sunday morning will be mostly governed by dew points. The valley floor is bone dry which means the typical moderation process is simply missing. The bottom line is, low to mid 30s will be widespread with a few locations, the usual trouble spots, briefly dipping into the upper 20s.
Beyond Monday, there will be a change in the pattern which could bring precipitation back to our region. Even if precipitation does not occur, we should enjoy increasing amounts of cloud cover and slowly rising dew points which should aid in maintaining above freezing conditions.
For now, there’s no pattern showing up that would spell trouble later on.
The inversion tonight will be relatively strong with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions over the next couple of nights.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
34 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
35 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
34 |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 20s.. Kern: Mid to upper 20s.
Humidity: Porterville: 25%/85% Bakersfield 20%55%
Actual Humidity November 13, 2018: Delano 92%/16% Porterville, 81%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .73, Parlier .60, Blackwell .72, Lindcove .56, Arvin .75, Orange Cove .67, Porterville .63, Delano .61 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 60, Blackwell 64, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 60, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 135 -99
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 56.5 +1.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.97 Month to Date: .00 -.44
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.55. Month to Date: .00 -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 55, Parlier, 85 , Arvin, 59 Shafter, 93 Stratford, 70, Delano 75, Lindcove, 56, Porterville, 109. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:37 am Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 72 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 70 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 85 0.22 15 1.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.25 21 1.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.17 12 1.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 6 1.43 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 9 0.10 9 1.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 4 0.06 6 1.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 4 0.55 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 80 0.00 0 0.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 63 0.32 30 1.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 20 1.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 31 0.04 4 1.12 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, November 14/pm