November 28, 2018
Summary: For more than a week now, we’ve been advertising a big weather event beginning today and lasting through Thursday night. This event has already begun. Rain is widespread over Madera and Fresno Counties and northern Tulare and Kings Counties. This band is almost a miniature AR, stretching from off the central coast and right into central California. The subtropical stream of air we’ve discussed is embedded within this flow, so already rain rates over the valley floor and especially along the Sierra Nevada are tallying up in a hurry.
Satellite imagery is very telling this morning. A rapidly deepening low pressure system is approaching the north/central California coast. Surface models continue to show lots of isobars, which are lines of equal pressure. In other words, pressures will be very low along the northern California coast and much higher over southern California and Nevada. This is shaping up for an ideal configuration for high winds in some areas. Although some models are indicating winds in excess of 30 MPH even over southeastern Tulare County, most models spit out 20 to 30 MPH sustained winds in places like Fresno and Visalia. In Kern County, the situation is rather fluid. Pressure gradients will really tighten up late tonight and Thursday and it will be possible strong, downslope winds could hit the valley floor with winds possibly as strong as 60 MPH in places like the bottom of the Grapevine. One model this morning depicts 30 to 40 MPH sustained winds in Bakersfield Thursday with stronger gusts. Topography plays a huge role in events like this, making it very difficult to nail down just where these winds will occur, but history has shown that the valley portion of Kern County and, to a lesser extent, the west side, can be prone to pretty strong winds in storms like this.
Precipitation will spread southward as the day progresses with rain tonight and Thursday morning. Some models show enough dynamics to the atmosphere for a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Showers will continue for a time Thursday night then a narrow dry slot will occur later Friday and Friday night. More showers will spread over the area Saturday and Saturday night. This system has its origins in the Gulf of Alaska, so it will be colder and snow levels will be much lower, possibly down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet near Yosemite. Showers will taper off by Sunday morning then a ridge of upper level high pressure will take over Sunday night through Monday night.
Models are also trying to point to another very well developed storm approaching the central coast about Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week. On paper, this system could also result in significant rain and snow with possibly more wind issues.
Forecast: Rain spreading southward today. Rain tonight and Thursday morning, locally heavy at times with strong, gusty southeast winds. Showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with a chance of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Some upslope showers will continue over the mountains Friday, but generally speaking the valley will be dry. Mostly cloudy Friday night. Showers spreading southeastward over the valley Saturday, continuing Saturday night. A chance of a few showers Sunday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday afternoon leading to a chance of rain late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/52/60/45/57 | Reedley 59/53/59/44/58 | Dinuba 57/51/59/44/57 | |
| Porterville 61/53/60/45/58 | Lindsay 61/52/61/47/57 | Delano 62/54/62/48/57 | |
| Bakersfield 65/55/62/49/58 | Taft 65/55/62/51/57 | Arvin 67/54/63/49/56 | |
| Lamont 66/54/62/48/58 | Pixley 62/53/61/48/58 | Tulare 57/51/60/46/57 | |
| Woodlake 59/52/60/46/58 | Hanford 58/53/61/45/57 | Orosi 59/52/60/47/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Showers likely 44/56 |
Sunday
AM showers possible 38/55 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/53 |
Tuesday
Increasing cloudiness 34/58 |
Wednesday
Rain and wind possible 44/61 |
Two Week Outlook: December 5 through December 11: This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California. This would bring marginally below average temperatures. Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds this morning should be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts this afternoon. Late tonight and Thursday morning, very strong winds are possible throughout the growing area. Some models show sustained winds between 20 and 30 MPH at places like Visalia and Fresno. In Kern County, we’ll have to watch the situation closely as very sharp differences in pressure at the surface coupled with a 140 knot jet stream above, could spawn some very gusty downslope winds off the Kern County mountains and onto the valley floor. One model suggests sustained winds of 30 to 40 MPH as far north as Bakersfield, especially Thursday morning. If this occurs, gusts to near 50 would be possible with 60 plus gusts not out of the question near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Time will tell whether these winds will remain just above the valley floor or make it all the way down, but on paper, the configuration is certainly proper.
By Thursday evening, winds will decrease to about 15 to 25 MPH then 10 to 20 MPH Thursday night and 5 to 15 MPH Friday through Saturday.
Rain: A swath of solid rain stretches now from northern Kings and Tulare Counties northward to Madera County. Satellite and radar indicate there’s a west/east flow with subtropical moisture embedded within this flow. This is already producing generous amounts of precipitation for the central part of the valley and the adjacent Sierra Nevada. This area of rain will slowly sink southward over the south valley as the day progresses. Periods of rain, heavy at times, can be expected this afternoon through Thursday morning with showers continuing Thursday afternoon and night. Some models are indicating enough dynamics will be in the atmosphere Thursday afternoon to trigger a few thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts from this event are shaping up to be very generous. For now, north of Kern County could receive anywhere from .50 to up to 1.50, especially near the foothills. The west side of Fresno and Kings Counties could record between .50 and 1.00 with possibly as much as .50 over the valley portion of Kern County.
There will be a temporary dry slot Friday and Friday night then the next low pressure system will roll out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Saturday and Saturday night. This system will be considerably colder with lower snow levels. What snow does fall will be on top of two to three feet of new snow from the previous storm. Some lingering showers are possible for a time Sunday morning with dry weather Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.
Models are now pointing towards the possibility of another well developed low, this time approaching the central and southern California coast, later Tuesday night and Wednesday. If this happens, another significant rain and snow event could occur along with another round of strong, gusty winds.
Frost Discussion: There is no chance of a significant frost or freeze event for the foreseeable future. Low to mid 30s are possible Monday and Tuesday mornings with a slight chance of upper 20s in historically cold locations. My feeling, however, is that with a soaking wet valley floor, and lingering cloud cover from the weekend storm, most locations may end up in the mid to upper 30s. it also looks like a mild Pacific storm will approach the coast Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing cloud cover over the area and keeping temperatures above freezing Wednesday through the following weekend. Nothing longer term showing up to be concerned with for now.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/95%, Bakersfield: 60%/85%
Actual Humidity November 27, 2018: Delano, 99%/33%, Porterville, 97%/37%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0% tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .42, Parlier .33, Blackwell .45, Lindcove .36, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .35, Delano .37 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 58, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 61, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 76/28. Average Temperatures: 60/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 294 -150
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.1 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .60 season. or -0.99 Month to Date: .50 -.46
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .34, or -.53. Month to Date: .34 -.23
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 146, Parlier, 191 , Arvin, 124 Shafter, 189 Stratford, 166, Delano 171, Lindcove, 156, Porterville, 239
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 71 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 69 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.01 2.52 108 0.91 39 2.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 0.83 44 0.98 52 1.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.58 31 1.03 54 1.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.58 30 0.32 17 1.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.60 38 0.37 23 1.59 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.34 24 0.37 26 1.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.34 39 0.03 3 0.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.41 54 0.16 21 0.76 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 1.83 101 0.75 41 1.81 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.42 27 0.25 16 1.54 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.57 32 0.09 5 1.78 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, November 28/pm