December 3, 2018
Summary: An unexpected batch of cloud cover streaked southeastward over California during the night, greatly slowing the radiational cooling process. This resulted in somewhat of a milder night with considerably less fog than was anticipated. However, skies are rapidly clearing along the west side of the valley so there is a chance fog could form. To our west, a big low pressure system is centered about 1,000 miles out, but the cloud shield ahead of this storm is already approaching the northern California coast. Higher clouds will begin to spread over central California from the west tonight, especially after midnight.
The first rain bands from this system will move on shore Tuesday night with the chance of precipitation increasing mainly after midnight. As the low approaches the central coast, it will take a turn towards the southeast parallel to the coast, moving inland through southern California Thursday night and Friday. For now, this does not appear to be a blockbuster event, but .25 to .33 cannot be ruled out, especially north of Kern County. Also, on Tuesday, there will be significant differences in surface pressure between the interior west and southern California. This should spawn gusty winds out of the east or southeast over the Kern County portion of the valley. At this time, this doesn’t look like a high wind event, but winds in the 15 to 30 MPH range with stronger gusts would not be a surprise.
Pressure gradients will begin to relax later Wednesday, reducing the chance of winds, but periods of rain will likely continue well into Thursday morning before the low opens up into a wave and rapidly moves into the Desert Southwest.
A progressive ridge of upper level high pressure will take over Friday through Sunday night, no doubt resulting in fog and low clouds. Models have actually been quite consistent for a change on the pattern for next Monday night through Wednesday. A major Pacific storm will be off the northern California coast with the possibility of another strong surface low, meaning wind possibilities. For now, the potential for a significant winter storm event appears to be there.
Beyond Wednesday of next week, there is not enough model continuity to really nail down a particular pattern this far out.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through this evening. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. A slight chance of showers Tuesday morning with a greater possibility during the afternoon. Periods of rain later Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night with extensive fog and low clouds possible nights and mornings. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of rain by evening.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/34/56/39/53 | Reedley 54/35/55/40/57 | Dinuba 54/34/56/40/56 | |
| Porterville 56/35/55/40/57 | Lindsay 56/33/55/40/58 | Delano 57/36/60/43/58 | |
| Bakersfield 59/41/64/46/59 | Taft 58/45/61/45/58 | Arvin 60/38/64/45/59 | |
| Lamont 57/39/63/44/57 | Pixley 57/37/61/43/57 | Tulare 55/34/56/40/55 | |
| Woodlake 55/34/56/40/55 | Hanford 56/36/55/40/55 | Orosi 55/33/56/40/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM rain 48/55 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 42/59 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 39/55 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 38/54 |
Monday
PM rain possible 44/59 |
Two Week Outlook: December 9 through December 15: The storm door will remain wide open, according to this model. In fact, the trend continues this morning for the high probability of rain for northern and central California. The flow across the Pacific Ocean will be out of the west or northwest with near to marginally above temperatures.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds today and tonight will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday north of Kern County will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County northward and along the west side. In Kern County Tuesday, winds will increase out of the east to southeast at 15 to 30 MPH as far north as Bakersfield with gusts possibly to 45 MPH near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. This wind potential will continue through Wednesday morning then decrease to 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. By Thursday, winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with light winds returning Thursday night and Friday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue into Tuesday morning. There will be a slight chance of showers by midday with an increasing chance of rain the deeper into the day we progress. Expect periods of rain at times Tuesday night through Thursday morning with dry weather returning Thursday afternoon.
Rainfall amounts from this event will not be major, but .25 to .33 is possible north of Kern County and even a few tenths to a quarter of an inch is possible over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will prevail Friday into Monday morning. Models have been quite consistent in depicting a major winter storm off the northern California coast Monday night. For the Monday night through Wednesday time frame, significant amounts of precipitation will be possible with heavy snow over the high Sierra.
Frost Discussion: The cloud cover that moved over the valley last night was a complete surprise as the skies off shore were generally clear yesterday afternoon. These clouds developed off the northern California coast then moved quickly into our region, resulting in a somewhat milder night than expected.
Most, if not all, locations should be above freezing, though close to freezing in some spots, especially in Tulare County. Higher clouds will increase during the course of the night, becoming more dense by sunrise. However, if the cloud deck is too thin, coldest locations could get down to 30 to 32.
Tonight will be the last time we’ll be dealing with frost for a while. The incoming Pacific storm will blanket the region with clouds and rain Tuesday night through Thursday morning, maintaining above freezing conditions. The winds across the Pacific behind this storm will be out of the west to northwest, which this time of year is always pleasant to deal with. Above freezing conditions can be expected through the weekend due to that source and rain early next week will take over from there. Even after that, though, models do not indicate polar air getting anywhere near California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
33 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
33 |
Metter
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/85%
Actual Humidity December 2, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/59%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .27, Blackwell .38, Lindcove .24, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .23, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 53, Blackwell 58, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 75/30. Average Temperatures: 58/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 360 -174
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 46.3 -0.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.82 season. or +.04, Month to Date: .05 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .87, or -.12. Month to Date: .19 +.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 177, Parlier, 219 , Arvin, 130 Shafter, 210 Stratford, 192, Delano 171, Lindcove, 199, Porterville, 296
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 am Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 38 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 36 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.19 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 37 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 56 / 39 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 42 / 0.10 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 54 / 45 / 0.03 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.73 142 0.91 35 2.63 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 2.97 138 0.98 46 2.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.60 127 1.03 50 2.04 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.25 108 0.32 15 2.08 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.82 102 0.37 21 1.78 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.57 102 0.37 24 1.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.87 88 0.03 3 0.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 154 0.16 19 0.85 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.63 174 0.75 36 2.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.47 142 0.25 14 1.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.81 89 0.09 4 2.03 13.95
Next report: December 3/pm